International gold prices rose nearly 0.5%, briefly hitting record highs and approaching $3,800 per ounce.

Gold prices continue their remarkable upward trajectory.

On September 23, gold prices continued climbing higher, reaching a new historical high of $3,775 per ounce during Asian trading hours (as of 5:00 PM Beijing time). Gold has set new record highs over 30 times this year, with cumulative gains reaching 43%. Gold futures have broken through $3,800 per ounce, continuously setting new performance records.

Currently, market confidence in gold holdings has reached unprecedented levels, with the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, holding 1,000.57 tons.

Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

Gold's surge has energized global capital flows, with SPDR significantly increasing positions over the past two trading days, adding 18.9 tons on September 19 and 6.01 tons on September 22.

"I also increased my gold ETF positions. Initially, I was hesitant about the high prices, but gold prices kept surging without any signs of pullback, so I chased higher prices with half my position," said veteran investor Lin Rong, who has been professionally investing in gold since 2008.

Lin told reporters that despite nearly 20 years of professional gold investment experience, the gold trends in 2024 and 2025 have greatly exceeded expectations. "Although the market predicted the rise, such massive gains indeed surpassed market expectations. Almost every sale was a mistake, while every purchase was profitable," Lin added.

On September 23, gold stocks also rose with the tide, with the gold sector leading gains of 1.3%. Among constituent stocks, Xiaocheng Technology's gains surged to 8% during morning trading; China Gold's gains reached 3.9%, with stock prices briefly breaking through historical highs to 20.82 yuan per share. Additionally, Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and other individual stocks approached their historical highs.

Looking at year-to-date performance, Western Gold and Chow Tai Fook's stock prices have risen over 170%, while Zhaojin Mining's stock price increased 145%.

Why has gold price entered another upward cycle? Liu Youhua, Research Director at Shenzhen Qianhai Paipai Fund Sales Co., Ltd., told reporters that this round of gold price increases mainly stems from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to declining yields on dollar assets, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, while dollar weakness also enhanced gold's attractiveness. Additionally, continued tensions in Middle Eastern geopolitical situations have boosted market risk-aversion sentiment, further supporting gold price strength.

Orient Securities analyst Qu Rui predicts gold prices will continue fluctuating upward. After the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut, market attention has turned to subsequent rate cut paths within the year. Recent U.S. August PCE inflation data will be released. Based on U.S. August PPI and CPI data meeting expectations, August PCE inflation may cool somewhat, which will strengthen expectations for consecutive rate cuts within the year, supporting gold prices. Furthermore, geopolitical friction shows no signs of easing, with market concerns that conflicts might escalate to energy-producing regions. Rising geopolitical risk premiums may also prompt investors to increase gold holdings, thereby supporting gold prices. Overall, gold prices will likely continue fluctuating upward in the short term.

However, Liu Youhua cautions about the need to watch for technical correction risks after positive factors are exhausted, particularly profit-taking pressure after rate cut expectations are realized and overbought signals emerge. But long-term, under the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining loose policies, continued U.S. fiscal expansion, and sticky inflation, gold still has strong upward support.

Gold Price Surge Effects

As international gold prices rise, domestic gold jewelry prices have increased. On September 23, Chow Sang Sang pure gold jewelry prices reached 1,100 yuan per gram, up 10 yuan per gram from the previous day; Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang pure gold jewelry prices rose to 1,098 yuan per gram.

Since the beginning of the year, all gold ETF gains have exceeded 37%, with Shanghai Gold ETF gains surpassing 45%, while gold stock ETF gains have exceeded 77%, outperforming numerous investment products.

After a round of fierce gains, the market has virtually no bearish voices on gold.

Deutsche Bank stated that gold prices hit record highs again mainly due to risk-aversion sentiment. Bank analyst Henry Allen said in a research report: "Investors are optimistic about the stock market on one hand, but simultaneously worry about significant downside risks. Gold prices have many driving factors, one of which is being viewed as a safe haven."

In early September, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that under baseline scenarios, international gold prices will surge to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026; under "tail risk scenarios," gold prices could reach $4,500 per ounce; if only 1% of funds from privately held U.S. Treasury markets flow into gold, gold prices are expected to approach $5,000 per ounce.

Long-term, gold prices still have upward potential. Huatai Securities analyst Li Bin stated that recently, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range. Since gold prices had already fully priced in this rate cut, as the cut lands as expected, gold faces pressure from positive factor realization. However, considering factors such as potentially more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy after Chairman Powell's term ends next year, precious metals like gold are expected to continue their long-term upward trend, benefiting related sectors.

Gold's surge has attracted attention from various capital sources, with domestic asset management institutions beginning to value gold's role in asset allocation portfolios. Asset management products incorporating gold into their allocation scope are rapidly expanding. Taking FOF products (funds that primarily invest in other funds) as an example, among the current 515 FOF products, 234 hold gold ETFs, representing nearly 45%, compared to 192 at year-end last year. Among these, 24 products have gold allocations exceeding 5%.

Additionally, in February this year, the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Notice on Conducting Pilot Programs for Insurance Fund Investment in Gold Business," designating 10 pilot insurance companies including New China Life, Taikang Life, Ping An Life, and Ping An Property Insurance. Based on medium- to long-term asset allocation purposes, these companies can conduct gold investment business, with gold investment book balances not exceeding 1% of total assets at the end of the previous quarter.

According to Guosen Securities calculations, the 10 pilot insurance companies have total assets of approximately 20 trillion yuan, with policy implementation expected to bring around 200 billion yuan in incremental funds to the gold market.

Bank wealth management products, with existing scale exceeding 30 trillion yuan, are more closely related to public investment. Currently, banks have issued multiple "Gold+" strategy wealth management products investing over 5% in gold. According to China Merchants Bank Wealth Management materials, it has R3 medium-risk "Stable Gold" series products that explicitly allocate 7.5% or 10% of funds to gold, seeking to capture gold's long-term upward returns while diversifying allocations to mitigate direct gold investment risks.

Rising gold prices have created favorable conditions for gold companies to enter capital markets. On September 19, Zijin Mining announced progress on its spin-off listing, with subsidiary Zijin Gold International planning to issue 349 million to 401 million shares (approximately 13.3% to 15% of total shares after global offering completion), with the issue price set at HK$71.59 per share. Based on these calculations, Zijin Gold International's market value could reach HK$187.85 billion after listing.