FIRST SHANGHAI issued a research report assigning a "Buy" rating to CNOOC (00883), forecasting revenues of RMB413.2 billion, RMB423.8 billion, and RMB442.9 billion for 2025-2027, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB132.7 billion, RMB134.3 billion, and RMB140.9 billion for the same period. The bank values the company at 8.5x 2026 P/E, setting a target price of HK$25.98.

In the first three quarters of 2025, CNOOC reported revenue of RMB339.47 billion (+0.81% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB28.53 billion (+6.11% YoY). Adjusted net profit stood at RMB28.60 billion (+14.54% YoY). Q3 revenue declined 5.75% YoY to RMB113.50 billion, while net profit fell 4.51% YoY to RMB10.23 billion. Adjusted net profit rose 5.52% YoY to RMB10.27 billion. Performance was impacted by lower oil prices, typhoon-related production cuts, and rising natural gas prices.

CNOOC achieved record-high net oil and gas output of 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) (+6.7% YoY) in the first nine months. The average Brent crude price dropped 14.6% YoY to $69.91/barrel, while realized gas prices edged up 1.0% to $7.86/thousand cubic feet. Lower oil prices reduced special income levies, with unit operating costs declining 2.8% YoY to $27.35/barrel.

The company made five new discoveries and appraised 22 oil-bearing structures, including Kenli 10-6 (potential mid-sized field) and Lingshui 17-2, demonstrating significant reserve expansion. Key projects like Kenli 10-2, Guyana's Yellowtail, Dongfang 1-1 (Block 13-3), and Wenchang 16-2 commenced production. Q3 net output grew 7.9% YoY to 193.7 million BOE, with natural gas output up 11.0%.

CNOOC maintains a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval. With robust cash flow and a current dividend yield of 6.7%, its high dividend attributes remain attractive.