EB SECURITIES: Shift to Dual Carbon Emission Controls Spurs Carbon Cost Reassessment, Bullish on Non-Power Applications of Green Energy

Stock News
02/27

EB SECURITIES has released a research report stating that as the global energy transition enters a critical phase, the central theme of the past decade has been the growth of wind and solar installations driven by the logic of replacing thermal power with green electricity. The core logic for the next decade, however, will be the "non-power application" of green electricity. This involves converting intermittent renewable energy into stable industrial feedstocks and thermal energy through carriers like green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol, thereby addressing the decarbonization challenges in industries such as steel, chemicals, and shipping. Considering factors like the ability of downstream sectors to pay premiums and the economics of substitution, non-power applications in shipping fuel green methanol, green ammonia for hydrogen storage and carbon fixation, and hydrogen-based metallurgy are expected to benefit. EB SECURITIES indicates that the domestic shift in assessment mechanisms from "dual control of energy consumption" to "dual control of carbon emissions" means high energy consumption is no longer the development red line; high carbon emissions are. The substantive implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) compels Chinese export-oriented manufacturers to seek decarbonization pathways beyond just green electricity. This scissor gap effect is expected to create a massive market for "green electricity conversion." The period from 2026 to 2030 is judged to be a critical window for green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol to progress from engineering demonstrations to cost-competitive commercialization. Environmental costs will become explicit as carbon costs, embedded into the pricing of industrial goods. Assets with "negative carbon" or "low carbon" attributes will command green premiums, while high-carbon assets will face profit erosion. Green hydrogen is a core non-power application of green electricity and a beneficiary of the policy shift towards dual carbon controls. In industries like steel and chemicals, green hydrogen can replace coal or natural gas as a reducing agent or feedstock. It also serves as an energy storage method for green power, enabling long-duration storage, cross-regional transport, and large-scale non-power applications. Under the policy framework of dual carbon controls replacing dual energy consumption controls, green electricity is not counted towards energy consumption assessments. Enterprises with green hydrogen quotas or those utilizing green hydrogen do not consume carbon indicator approval quotas. Considering downstream ability to pay premiums and substitution economics, non-power applications in shipping fuel green methanol, green ammonia for hydrogen storage and carbon fixation, and hydrogen-based metallurgy are positioned to benefit. Green hydrogen is central to cost reduction for both the energy source and downstream applications. Green ammonia is an ideal transport vector for green hydrogen, and green methanol is its optimal carrier in the shipping sector. With declining levelized costs of renewable energy and advancements in electrolyzer technology, green hydrogen is approaching cost parity with grey hydrogen, thereby driving down application costs for green methanol and green ammonia. Currently, global leaders in the shipping industry demonstrate the strongest motivation to pay a premium. Furthermore, major chemical companies targeting the European market have strong demand for green methanol, driven by tightening EU ETS policies and their own carbon neutrality transition commitments.

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