On May 29, the Bitcoin market entered a more detailed stage of liquidity observation following the price retreat. According to a Cointelegraph report on May 28th, after Bitcoin fell below $73,000, multiple on-chain distribution signals indicated rising selling pressure. The report noted that the Coinbase Premium Index deviated to -1,083% from its three-month average, with the price spread once reaching -$94.95. Meanwhile, Binance recorded an average net inflow of approximately 1,496 BTC over the past seven days, 528% higher than the three-month average. However, long-term holders control about 84.3% of the circulating supply, and the 30-day average realized loss has decreased to $12.85 million. ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that short-term capital is reassessing the relationship between spot demand, derivatives positions, and the behavior of long-term holders.
From a structural perspective, ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that Bitcoin has not completely left the support zone, but rising selling pressure indicators mean a rebound would require stronger spot buying support. If exchange net inflows continue to expand, the market might prioritize testing lower liquidity levels; if long-term holders remain stable, the speed of the decline could also be limited.
On-chain data and product innovations are sending mixed signals. On one hand, distribution indicators and exchange net inflows show the presence of short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, the rapid absorption of deposits following the launch of yield-generating products indicates that some holders still seek to improve asset utilization efficiency within their long-term allocation strategies. Market observers suggest this divergence could lead to Bitcoin experiencing repeated back-and-forth movements around key price levels.
Going forward, attention should be paid to trading volume changes within the $72,000 to $75,000 range and whether spot trading volume recovers in tandem with price stabilization. If buying support is insufficient, the price may continue to seek thicker liquidity at lower levels. If the support holds, market sentiment could potentially shift from defensive to corrective. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that for fast-moving digital assets, relying on a single price signal can be misleading. A more prudent approach involves assessing market rhythm by combining on-chain inflows, futures funding rates, and spot trading volume.