Abstract

NiSource will report first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, Pre-Market; consensus expects year-over-year growth in revenue and EPS, with investor attention on cost trajectory, margin resilience, execution on signed data center energy agreements, and any updates to the 2026 earnings and capital program outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to first-quarter 2026 revenue of 2.25 billion US dollars, up 15.59% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at 1.05, up 17.29% year over year; EBIT is forecast at 861.57 million US dollars, up 21.64% year over year. Forecast gross margin, net income, and net margin were not provided in the projections and are therefore not included here.

Across the company’s core operations, revenue remains broadly anchored by Columbia operations and NIPSCO operations. The segment with the largest incremental growth potential this year is NIPSCO’s generation and delivery operations linked to hyperscale data-center load; NIPSCO generated 3.31 billion US dollars last quarter, and company-wide revenue is projected to rise 15.59% year over year this quarter as new commercial agreements progress.

Last Quarter Review

NiSource delivered fourth-quarter results with revenue of 1.90 billion US dollars, a gross margin of 49.96%, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of 258.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 13.55%, and adjusted EPS of 0.51, up 4.08% year over year.

A key highlight was the top-line outperformance versus consensus; revenue exceeded estimates by 383.40 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS also modestly surpassed expectations by 0.01, while quarter-on-quarter net profit expanded by 172.23%. By business line, Columbia operations produced 3.33 billion US dollars and NIPSCO operations produced 3.31 billion US dollars last quarter, and company-wide revenue grew 19.85% year over year, underlining robust demand and rate recovery through the period.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Operations and Near-Term Earnings Drivers

Management and external forecasts align around a meaningful year-over-year step-up in the first quarter, with revenue estimated at 2.25 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS at 1.05. This cadence reflects normal seasonality in gas and electric sales, the effect of recent rate implementations, and disciplined cost control following last quarter’s revenue beat and solid operating leverage. With EBIT forecast to increase 21.64% year over year to 861.57 million US dollars, investors will parse the extent to which operating margin expansion flows through to EPS in a period of elevated financing needs.

Gross margin and net margin guidance was not disclosed for the quarter, but last quarter’s gross margin of 49.96% offers a baseline to gauge performance. Management commentary will be scrutinized for cost visibility across fuel, purchased power, and O&M, given the high sensitivity of quarterly profitability to these inputs. The net margin print of 13.55% last quarter provides another reference point as investors evaluate how much of the forecasted revenue growth converts to bottom-line expansion amid a rising capex cycle.

Within Columbia operations, the focus this quarter is on execution: rate recovery, customer growth, and project delivery milestones that support full-year earnings. While Columbia’s revenue base remains sizable at 3.33 billion US dollars last quarter, incremental growth in the first quarter should be measured against ongoing capital deployment and the timing of regulatory outcomes. Watch for management to discuss operating efficiencies and bill-credit dynamics designed to maintain customer affordability while sustaining earnings growth.

Data-Center-Linked Projects and Growth Pipeline

NiSource announced on April 17, 2026 that it signed a long-term energy agreement with a subsidiary of Alphabet to support a large data center in northern Indiana, with service expected to commence this summer. The company also expanded its agreement with Amazon Data Services to accelerate energization of Amazon sites and bring forward related bill credits for residential customers, and it now expects approximately 1.25 billion US dollars in aggregate cost savings for existing customers. These agreements add tangible line-of-sight to multi-year load additions and capital deployment under NIPSCO’s purview.

For the first quarter specifically, the revenue and earnings impact from these new agreements will be mostly preparatory rather than material, as the Alphabet service is slated to begin later in 2026 and the Amazon adjustments focus on timeline acceleration and customer bill credits. However, the strategic value shows up in guidance credibility: the data center pipeline can underpin sustained revenue and EBIT growth beyond the first quarter, help optimize asset utilization, and improve investment timing certainty. Investors will be looking for clarity on in-service schedules, expected returns, and any refinements to 2026 capital plans that ensure customer affordability remains intact alongside growth.

Communication around these projects could influence the valuation framework this quarter even more than the Q1 print itself. Confirming milestone dates, outlining near-term construction progress, and quantifying expected O&M and pass-through impacts will help the market size the earnings uplift trajectory. Any commentary indicating additional commercial traction with hyperscale customers, or acceleration of existing activities, would likely feed back into higher confidence in revenue and EBIT estimates for the back half of 2026.

What Will Drive the Stock This Quarter

The stock reaction around May 6, 2026 is likely to be driven by three factors: the magnitude of any revenue and EPS beat or miss versus the 2.25 billion US dollars and 1.05 benchmarks, the quality of margin execution relative to last quarter’s 49.96% gross margin and 13.55% net margin, and guidance language tied to the data center agreements and broader 2026 earnings cadence. Even a small EPS beat could be well received if accompanied by stable or improving margin commentary and clear evidence that project schedules remain on track. Conversely, any indication of cost slippage or delays to energization timelines would be weighed against otherwise healthy top-line growth.

Financing strategy and balance-sheet commentary will also matter. With a growing capital plan and the need to sequence project outlays in line with regulatory recovery, investors will watch for updates on funding mix, interest expense trajectory, and pacing for equity-linked financing, if any. Maintaining a stable dividend—recently declared at 0.30 per share with a payment date of May 20, 2026—adds support to the total-return profile, but the market will likely prioritize visibility on self-funding capacity through internal cash flow and timely rate mechanisms.

Finally, management’s color on first-half versus full-year timing will set context for the second quarter. If the company signals that the first quarter benefits from normal weather and rate timing, but that the larger earnings uplift drops as new data-center-related projects energize later in the year, investors may look through any quarter-to-quarter noise in favor of the full-year growth vector. That path would be consistent with the current pattern of improving revenue and EBIT forecasts and could narrow the range of estimates into midyear.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the current research flow by a wide margin. Based on opinions and rating actions published between January 1 and April 29, 2026, bullish calls outnumber non-bullish ones by roughly 7-to-1; we therefore present the bullish perspective exclusively. Collectively, these firms anchor on three points: supportive regulatory outcomes and recovery mechanisms, accelerating load from signed data center agreements, and above-trend revenue and EPS growth in 2026 relative to recent periods.

BMO Capital, through analyst James Thalacker, reiterated a Buy stance in April 2026, emphasizing supportive regulatory outcomes and the data center strategy as key pillars underpinning the earnings trajectory. Barclays maintained a Buy rating in April 2026, highlighting the constructive multi-quarter setup and the company’s ability to translate capital deployment into earnings growth while safeguarding customer affordability via bill credits. The tone across these notes implies that the recently announced Alphabet agreement and the expanded Amazon arrangements are credible catalysts for sustained load growth at NIPSCO.

Large-cap brokers echoed that optimism with price target adjustments through March and April 2026. JPMorgan raised its price target to 52 US dollars while reaffirming an Overweight rating, citing better visibility into growth from commercial agreements and consistent execution on the capital program. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating and lifted its target to 55 US dollars, positioning the stock to benefit from a multi-year capex pipeline and improving earnings power as new assets enter service. UBS increased its target to 54 US dollars, reflecting improved confidence in forward revenue and EBIT growth and the company’s ability to manage the cost of capital within its funding plan.

Research boutiques and independent houses also leaned positive. Argus moved its target to 52 US dollars while maintaining a Buy rating in April 2026, framing the story as a combination of dependable earnings growth, dividend support, and incremental upside from hyperscale demand. Ladenburg Thalmann raised its target to 53 US dollars and kept a Buy stance, pointing to a more favorable risk-reward as project milestones approach. KeyBanc initiated Overweight with a 52 US dollar target in late March 2026, underscoring the broader appeal of the 2026–2027 earnings path underpinned by the new commercial agreements.

Across these bullish previews, the common template for the May 6, 2026 report centers on three checks: delivery against first-quarter estimates (2.25 billion US dollars revenue, 1.05 EPS), margin stewardship compared with last quarter (49.96% gross margin, 13.55% net margin), and qualitative reinforcement of the commercial pipeline. Analysts expect adjusted EPS to rise 17.29% year over year and revenue to increase 15.59%, validating the view that rate implementations, demand, and disciplined spending can overcome near-term cost variability. Confirmation that service for Alphabet begins this summer, plus tangible steps to accelerate Amazon site energization and customer bill credits, would further anchor 2026 forecasts and sustain the bull case.

In summary, the majority view anticipates a clean print on May 6, 2026 with constructive guidance update. With EBIT forecast to climb 21.64% year over year to 861.57 million US dollars and visible catalysts tied to data center demand, the bull argument rests on NiSource’s ability to execute its capital plan, preserve customer affordability through structured bill credits, and translate revenue growth into durable EPS gains through 2026.