Everbright Securities has reiterated its "Buy" rating on ASMPT (00522), citing strong AI demand, recovery in core businesses and SMT operations, and anticipated acceleration in TCB equipment shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026. However, restructuring-related one-time expenses have led to adjustments in the company's net profit forecasts for 2025–2027 to HKD 203 million, HKD 1.351 billion, and HKD 1.935 billion, respectively (representing a -66%, +42%, and +41% revision compared to previous estimates), with year-on-year growth rates of -41.2%, +565.2%, and +43.2%.

The report highlights ASMPT's progress in TCB and HB equipment, with expectations of bulk shipments to leading foundry customers. The launch of HBM4 and 16-layer HBM is expected to further boost TCB demand, reinforcing long-term optimism for the advanced packaging business's positive impact on performance and valuation.

Key developments include: 1) **TCB**: The company has secured validation from a major logic sector client and holds a first-mover advantage in HBM4. - In the logic sector, ASMPT is poised to receive orders from a top foundry customer and partners for C2S in Q4 2025 and beyond, while C2W solutions have already passed customer certification for mass production. - In memory, ASMPT has received orders from multiple clients for HBM4-12H, with one being the primary supplier. Its flux-free TCB (AOR) technology is also positioned for future 16-layer HBM production.

2) **HB**: Deliveries continued in Q3, with several collaborative projects at various evaluation stages.

Additionally, the voluntary liquidation of its Shenzhen subsidiary, AEC, resulted in a short-term loss due to restructuring and inventory write-offs totaling HKD 355 million in Q3. However, this move is expected to improve long-term profitability, with projected annual cost savings of HKD 128 million and enhanced gross margins post-completion.