Abstract

StoneCo will report third-quarter 2026 results on November 12, 2026 Post-Mkt; investors will scrutinize revenue growth, margin resilience, and EPS progression versus last year and the prior quarter as management updates its near-term outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus derived from recent estimates implies StoneCo’s current quarter revenue of 3.74 billion US dollars with year-over-year growth of 3.46%, an EBIT of 1.10 billion US dollars representing a 43.60% year-over-year decline, and EPS of 2.54 with an 10.86% year-over-year increase. The market expects stable to slightly easing unit economics, with management emphasizing disciplined take-rate expansion and operating leverage; however, EBIT softness reflects tougher comps and investment phasing. The company’s core financial income and payment-related services remain the key contributors, while subscription and equipment leasing is viewed as the most scalable opportunity given ongoing merchant adoption and cross-sell progress.

Last Quarter Review

StoneCo’s previous quarter delivered revenue of 3.59 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 65.66%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 445.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 13.32%, and adjusted EPS of 2.40, each compared year over year with revenue up 2.47% and EPS up 3.00%. Management highlighted operating discipline and commercial momentum that supported healthy take-rate and loss-rate control despite competitive pricing pressure. By business line, financial income generated 5.25 billion US dollars, transaction activities and other services 908.59 million US dollars, other financial income 512.54 million US dollars, and subscription services and equipment leasing 496.16 million US dollars, with financial income remaining the largest contributor and subscription services the fastest expanding on a low base.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core payment and financial income engine

The core driver this quarter is expected to remain financial income and payment-related monetization across StoneCo’s merchant base. With an estimated 3.74 billion US dollars in total revenue, sell-side models imply continued mid-single-digit expansion supported by volume growth and modest take-rate mix improvements in payment services. Margin dynamics will likely hinge on funding costs and prepayment volumes; the prior quarter’s 65.66% gross margin offers a high base, so incremental mix shifts toward acquiring and credit products could create slight variability. The quarter-on-quarter net profit trajectory last quarter showed pronounced volatility, reminding investors that provisioning and funding costs can introduce noise even when top-line trends are stable.

Most scalable growth opportunity

Subscription services and equipment leasing appear best positioned to compound as StoneCo deepens software penetration among small and medium-sized merchants. Although the revenue base is smaller than transaction and financial income, the unit economics can be favorable when churn is contained and attach rates rise on integrated POS and software bundles. Cross-sell into the installed merchant base combined with incremental software modules should support double-digit growth potential over a multi-quarter horizon, while near-term revenue recognition will still depend on hardware cycle timing and rollout cadence.

Stock-price sensitivities this quarter

Investors are likely to focus on three levers: volume growth in payment acquiring, gross margin sustainability, and the capital intensity behind credit and prepayment flows. Any miss or beat on EPS relative to the 2.54 estimate will likely be driven more by operating expense timing and funding costs than by core take-rate shifts. Guidance tone on loss rates, prepayment demand, and the path of EBIT normalization will be watched closely, as the current-quarter estimate embeds a 43.60% year-over-year decline in EBIT that could reset expectations if realized or challenged if execution proves stronger.

Analyst Opinions

Recent commentary from the sell side and market observers points to a majority constructive stance into the print, with a higher share of bullish versus bearish opinions emphasizing resilient revenue growth and improving EPS despite EBIT pressure. Analysts highlight that StoneCo’s pricing discipline and risk management in credit underwriting have helped stabilize profitability, which underpins the forecast EPS growth of 10.86% year over year. Several well-followed institutions have reiterated favorable outlooks on execution and monetization depth within the merchant ecosystem, expecting that operational improvements and software attach will mitigate near-term EBIT compression. The majority view anticipates that, while EBIT faces mix and investment headwinds this quarter, the combination of steady top-line growth and cost controls should support EPS delivery and set up a healthier margin trajectory into subsequent quarters.