According to intelligence sources, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report indicating that based on baijiu channel feedback during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the overall demand for the baijiu industry during this period is expected to decline by 20-30% year-over-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% (as a percentage of annual target volume), and wholesale prices declining across the board.

From a consumption scenario perspective, banquet performance fell below expectations with some decline, gift demand decreased, and while government and business scenarios improved sequentially, they still showed a significant gap compared to the same period last year. Looking ahead to next year's Spring Festival, on one hand, current channel inventory remains relatively high and requires time to digest, and on the other hand, consumption scenarios are still in the recovery process with demand remaining weak. Additionally, the base for 2025 Spring Festival was relatively high, so sales momentum during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to face considerable pressure.

From a financial reporting perspective, some liquor companies began releasing pressure in their Q2 2025 reports, and it is expected that Q3 2025 reports will comprehensively release pressure, which may continue until Q1 2026.

The main viewpoints from Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. are as follows:

**Brand-specific Performance: Moutai performed best, Wuliangye adopted volume-for-price strategy, Jiannanchun 1573 controlled supply to maintain prices, Fenjiu maintained relatively stable structural balance, while regional liquors faced pressure on both volume and price**

**Moutai**: Dealer payment progress was normal, but some major distributors did not finish shipping September inventory. Sales momentum is expected to decline by single digits. Feitian wholesale prices were around 1,780 yuan per scattered bottle and approximately 1,835 yuan per case. Wholesale prices declined slightly compared to pre-holiday levels, mainly due to fluctuations before and after peak season. It is expected that supply and demand will stabilize as Q4 2025 enters the off-season, with limited downside space. Moutai demand was affected by previous policies, with inventory at 0.5-1 month, up 0.5 months year-over-year.

**Wuliangye**: Dealer payment ratio is expected to be approximately 70%, with sales momentum expected to decline by around 15%. Prices declined rapidly in Q3 2025, with current wholesale prices for regular Wuliangye at approximately 810-830 yuan. Due to price reductions, market share increased on the sales side while some dealers reduced volumes, resulting in dealer inventory of approximately 1 month, roughly flat year-over-year (not considering unshipped inventory).

**Jiannanchun 1573**: Dealer payment ratio is expected to be 60%-70%, with sales momentum declining 20-30%. Low-alcohol Jiannanchun 1573 performed better than high-alcohol versions. The company continued to control supply to maintain prices, with low-alcohol Jiannanchun wholesale prices around 630 yuan and high-alcohol versions around 820-830 yuan. Inventory accounts for approximately 30% of annual targets.

**Fenjiu**: Payment progress is expected to be 70%-80%, with glass-bottle Fenjiu sales momentum flat to slightly positive year-over-year. Due to some volume increase in Qinghua series, wholesale prices declined, with Qinghua 20 wholesale prices at 330-360 yuan, while glass-bottle Fenjiu maintained smooth pricing. Qinghua inventory is expected to account for approximately 20% of annual targets.

**Regional Liquors**: - **Jiugui**: Hefei regional feedback indicates expected payment ratio of 85%, with payment amounts flat year-over-year. Overall sales momentum is expected to decline 10%-15%, wholesale prices have all declined to some extent compared to early year levels, with inventory accounting for over 50% of annual targets. - **Yingjia Gongjiu**: Hefei regional feedback shows expected sales momentum decline of 20%, with channel profits narrowing compared to similar-priced Jiugui products. Inventory approximately 2 months. - **Yanghe**: Expected payment ratio of 85%, sales momentum expected to decline 20-30% year-over-year, inventory 3-4 months, terminal inventory decreased year-over-year. - **Jinshiyuan**: Expected payment ratio of 85%, sales momentum expected to decline 20-30% year-over-year, inventory 3-4 months, terminal inventory increased year-over-year, wholesale prices declined sequentially.

**Investment Recommendations**

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. believes that industry fundamentals still need to establish and grind through a bottom, with channel clearing speed expected to be faster than financial statement clearing speed, and stock price inflection points will appear before fundamental inflection points. Patience is required for sector opportunities, waiting for the right timing.

1) Dividend yield provides value support for leading companies' price floors. Currently, high-quality high-dividend stocks have long-term allocation value and benefit periodically from market liquidity and sector rotation.

2) Fundamental-driven trending opportunities require patient waiting, but if high-quality individual stocks provide left-side buying opportunities through corrections, long-term positioning is also viable.

In terms of targets, key recommendations include: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Jiannanchun (000568.SZ), with attention to Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Jinshiyuan (603369.SH), Yingjia Gongjiu (603198.SH), and others.

**Risk Warnings**

Economic downturn affecting demand for mid-to-high-end baijiu; food safety issues causing consumer concerns and affecting overall baijiu industry demand.