Major events today centered on the intensifying China-US rivalry, with the stock market showing a clear response. The A-share market rallied strongly, while Hong Kong's market edged up by 0.24%. Trump, in his bid for the midterm elections, pulled out all the stops, recently claiming his administration had "very smooth negotiations" with Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen. However, Iranian state television, citing informed sources, reported that a potential agreement between Iran and Oman on vessel passage arrangements would not immediately lead to the reopening of the strait. Trump, controlling the narrative, swayed the capital markets, causing oil prices to plummet by 5%. A chain reaction followed, with spot gold surging to $4,100 per ounce, up 0.56% on the day.

The collective surge in gold stocks is likely driven not just by falling oil prices, but more fundamentally by the escalating China-US rivalry, prompting capital to seek safe havens. China Gold International (02099) expected its mid-term profit attributable to shareholders to increase by approximately 46.4% to 53.1% year-on-year, surging over 13% today. Other gold stocks like Wanguo Gold Group (03939), Lingbao Gold (03330), and Zhitong's August stock pick Zijin Gold International (02259) all rose over 10%. Non-ferrous metals also saw a boost. The US is set to ban the export of tungsten scrap and battery recycling materials from late this month, just a week after President Trump formally authorized government departments to retain potentially critical strategic materials domestically. Tungsten is widely used in military applications, and the US, facing significant ammunition consumption in the Middle East, urgently needs tungsten raw materials, now forced to extract them from scrap. Tungsten leader Jiaxin International Resources (03858) surged nearly 10%, while battery recycling concept stock Jinjing New Energy (01783) also jumped over 13%. Related lithium battery stocks performed strongly. Copper futures hovered near historical highs, with COMEX copper futures trading at $6.65 per pound, less than 1% below its record high in May. Jiangxi Copper (00358), MMG (01208), and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) all rose over 6%.

Turning to the China-US rivalry, the optical communications sector, which had just rebounded yesterday, faced immediate headwinds from the US. According to sources, the US government is drafting a ban on importing new types of data center components from China to protect the critical infrastructure supporting AI development. Speculation aside, it's widely seen as a political ploy by Trump to gain leverage for September talks. However, it has caused tangible damage to the market, as fears of sudden "neck-hold" restrictions resurface, given the core technologies remain in US hands. Zhongji Innolight (03308) fell over 5%. Previously, such actions were largely tolerated, but times have changed. Continued acquiescence only invites endless sanctions. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce swiftly retaliated with measures including strengthening export controls on drones and their key components/technology to the US, suspending factory tracking inspections by designated US certification bodies, blacklisting a US compliance testing company, launching a national security investigation into imported printing/copying office equipment, and adding six US entities to a sanctions list. This reciprocal countermeasure makes sense, as it forces the US to feel the consequences. The printer sector is significantly impacted, with the domestic substitution play Lenovo Group (00992) rising nearly 6% today.

This aggressive US move directly stimulated the upgrade of domestic substitution, with even South Korea seeking ways to break free from constraints. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are evaluating chip-making equipment from China's Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) for potential use in their China factories, sparking a market reassessment of the logic for domestic equipment moving from "internal circulation" substitution to "external circulation" exports. If AMEC (688012.SH) can enter the supply chain, it could trigger a revaluation of the domestic equipment export narrative. Domestic chipmakers will also accelerate their localization efforts. Yesterday's sector focus stocks, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), SMIC (00981), and ASMPT (00522), all rose over 4%. On the hardware front, the PCB industry chain, as highlighted yesterday, is undoubtedly the sector with the highest current prosperity. An institution notes that the July base price was 8.5-8.7 yuan/meter, with an additional increase of 1.5-2.0 yuan/meter planned for August, a month-on-month rise of 17%-22%, exceeding the July increase. Price hikes are expected to continue at least until the end of 2027. Electronic cloth, the most bottleneck-constrained and steepest pricing slope link in the PCB chain, has adequately priced in external sentiment disturbances during its recent correction, making it the best entry point post-oversold. Core stock Kingboard Laminates (01888) rose over 10%. Yesterday's mentioned PCB equipment name Xinji Micro (09630) surged nearly 14% again. Dingtai High-Tech (01377) and Guanghe Technology (01989) rose over 7%. Andre Juice (02218) also rose over 9% due to its cross-sector acquisition of a PCB factory.

Another stimulus came from NVIDIA's upcoming Kyber solution: replacing most copper cables with a massive, 78-layer ultra-high-precision PCB orthogonal backplane as a hub. GPU trays would be inserted vertically into this large board for high-speed NVLink interconnection, allowing a single cabinet to house 144 Rubin GPUs, significantly improving density, latency, and heat dissipation. This dramatically increases the value per cabinet for PCBs. Shenghong Technology (02476) is rapidly advancing its Kyber orthogonal backplane, and if it passes NVIDIA's certification for mass production, its valuation could see a significant boost, rising over 16% today. Hon Hai recently stated it expects AI cabinet shipments to maintain momentum in the current quarter, with ICT product demand entering a peak season, anticipating both sequential and year-on-year growth. Its subsidiary FIT HON TENG (06088), which focuses on connectors and cable modules, targets the 5G AIoT and high-growth赛道, concentrating on high-speed connectors and optical communication core components, expecting the cloud market to be a key growth driver. It surged over 17% today. In the computing power sector, GPU company Biren Technology (06082) jumped nearly 13%. Fiber optics are facing upcoming tenders, boosting Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) by over 14%. In the AI model space, the latest open-source model H3 from MiniMax (00100) saw over 100 domestic and international partners complete Day0 adaptation and access within 24 hours of release. This Zhitong August stock pick surged over 10%. Overseas, Palantir's surge spread heat to vertical niches, with knowledge graphs becoming a core component of the AI infrastructure layer. Haizhi Technology Group (02706)'s core business covers three major segments: knowledge graph platforms and intelligent analysis solutions for finance, energy, and manufacturing; big data infrastructure based on graph databases; and enterprise AI applications integrating large models. Its self-developed graph database products are deployed in numerous domestic financial institutions and large enterprises, leading to a nearly 43% surge today.

On August 4th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially released the mandatory national standard "Intelligent Connected Vehicle Autonomous Driving System Safety Requirements," set to be implemented on July 1, 2027. The standard covers L3 and L4 high-level autonomous vehicles, establishing a full lifecycle safety management, human-machine interaction, and multi-dimensional test verification system, clarifying a unified safety access baseline for high-level autonomous driving. While beneficial for long-term industry regulation, the short-term stimulus is limited, with only Zhejiang Shibao (01057) rising over 15%. Hesai (02525) has been active recently, rising over 3%.

Key Sector Focus

Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its market expectations for China's humanoid robot sector, judging that the industry has moved from a technology demonstration phase to a commercial deployment phase, developing much faster than previously anticipated. It forecasts domestic humanoid robot shipments to reach 50,000 units in 2026, nearly double its previous estimate of 28,000 units, and far above its initial January forecast of 14,000 units. The long-term forecast shows China's humanoid robot shipments reaching 446,000 units by 2030, corresponding to a market size of $15 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 106% from 2025 to 2030. Unitree Technology disclosed its STAR Market prospectus on July 30th, planning to publicly issue no less than 40,464,434 shares (no less than 10% of total post-issuance shares), with preliminary inquiries on August 5th and offline subscription on August 10th. This is expected to generate sector heat. Key Hong Kong-listed names include Onerobotics (06600), Ledong Robotics (01236), UBTECH Robotics (09880), Laifu Harmonic (03952), Estun Automation (02715), and RoboSense (02498).

Stock Spotlight: Ganfeng Lithium (01772)

Ganfeng Lithium (01772) has diversified resource layout and overseas lithium mine capacity release. The company's 2026 interim report forecast shows net profit attributable to parent of 36.5-4.6 billion yuan, a sharp turnaround from a loss of 531 million yuan in the same period last year, with net profit surging up to 966%. Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 30-4.2 billion yuan, up 429% to 560% year-on-year. BlackRock recently increased its H-share holding from 6.67% to 8.62%. The company's H1 performance was outstanding, successfully returning to profitability. As a global lithium leader, Ganfeng's equity resources exceed 45 million tons of LCE, ranking among the top globally. Full-year 2026 LCE production is targeted at 230,000-250,000 tons, an increase of over 30%. Overseas lithium mine capacity is being released: 1) Argentina's Cauchari-Olaroz (CO salt lake, 51% stake) with 24.58 million tons LCE, the world's second-largest salt lake. Phase 1 capacity is 40,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate; Phase 2 awaits 2026 environmental approval, with construction starting in 2027. 2) Argentina's Mariana salt lake (100% owned) with 8.12 million tons LCE, Phase 1 capacity of 20,000 tons/year of lithium chloride, started production in February 2025, ramping up in 2026 to contribute over 10,000 tons. 3) Mali's Goulamina spodumene mine (wholly owned) with 7.14 million tons LCE, 1.37% Li2O grade, Phase 1 capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate per year. Capacity and shipments are growing rapidly. Lithium salt capacity (lithium carbonate/hydroxide) exceeds 200,000 tons, with a 2026 plan of over 250,000 tons; Phase 2 is expected to start at end-2026, with production in 2027. 4) PPGS salt lake: construction starts in H2 2026, production in 2028. It is the world's largest metal lithium producer with continuous capacity expansion. Clients include global leaders like CATL, BYD, LG, and Tesla. The company's diversified resource layout includes electric ship lithium batteries, the Congo (Brazzaville) Guma potassium fertilizer project with a one-time 2 million ton KCl capacity (expected 2027 production), adsorption lithium extraction technology with a total recovery rate exceeding 90%, and a lithium sulfide production line gradually releasing capacity. Energy storage capacity is adding 35-40 GWh (588Ah line ramping up in Q3), with full-year shipments exceeding 50 GWh, becoming the largest profit source and gaining global market share, contributing 30-4 billion yuan in net profit. Energy storage orders are booked through mid-2027, with all 2026 capacity already fully subscribed. Solid-state battery mass production (10 GWh level) with energy density of 450-500 Wh/kg is entering high-end vehicles and consumer electronics, opening up a trillion-yuan market space. Energy storage cells are fully utilized, with the company's cells running at full capacity from January to April, a utilization rate near 100%, and cell products in short supply. The Nanchang 588Ah line plans to start capacity ramp-up in Q3, with the 648Ah project accelerating. Order scheduling: all of 2026 and H1 2027 are fully booked, with new capacity locked in early. Additionally, the company's high-safety, low-temperature- resistant solid-state lithium batteries have been sent for batch sample verification to an internationally renowned mobile phone company. Institutions expect lithium prices to potentially strengthen in H2 2026, maintaining a target price forecast of 250,000 yuan/ton, a 50% upside from current carbonate lithium prices. The company's strong H1 performance leads institutions to be optimistic about a price recovery in the peak season.