Goldman Sachs released a research report noting that Sands China Ltd.'s (01928) fourth-quarter results were slightly below expectations. Seasonally adjusted EBITDA saw a modest 1% quarter-on-quarter increase to $608 million, falling short of the market's anticipated range of $610 million to $640 million. Adjusting the VIP win rate from the actual 3.9% back to the theoretical 3.3% would have reduced EBITDA by $26 million to $582 million, representing a 3% sequential decline or a 2% year-on-year increase. The firm maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock.

Looking ahead to 2026, management retains a relatively optimistic outlook for the Macau gaming industry and does not anticipate the FIFA World Cup having a significant impact on gross gaming revenue. The bank forecasts EBITDA margins of 31% and 31.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, translating to property EBITDA of $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion. These figures are close to the company's medium-term target of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion but remain below the 2019 level of $3 billion.

Factoring in the lower projected EBITDA margins, Goldman Sachs has reduced its 2026-2027 EBITDA forecasts by 4% to 5%. Consequently, the target price has been lowered from HK$24.2 to HK$23.2. With no major capital expenditures expected in the coming years, the group is anticipated to continue increasing its dividend payouts.