Economic Data Returns as Retail Earnings Take Center Stage This Week

Deep News
11/24

As November draws to a close, trading days are shortened due to Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Investors must navigate the aftermath of NVIDIA's (NVDA) stellar earnings while confronting declining market confidence in the AI-driven rally.

Last Friday, markets closed a volatile week with mixed results: the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell over 2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) both dropped about 1.5%. Despite strong September U.S. jobs data, NVIDIA’s earnings beat, and Walmart’s Q3 performance, Thursday saw one of the sharpest intraday reversals in a decade—the S&P 500 opened up 1.5% but closed down 1.5%, with even wilder swings in the Nasdaq.

This week, economic data releases will accelerate as U.S. agencies clear backlogs after the government shutdown. Key reports include September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data on Tuesday, alongside the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index. Earnings season remains light, with Alibaba (BABA), Dell (DELL), and retailers like Kohl’s (KSS) and Best Buy (BBY) in focus.

**"Lack of Sustained Momentum"** November has been tough for tech bulls. Meta (META) and Oracle (ORCL) plunged over 15% and 25%, respectively, after announcing expanded AI spending. Microsoft (MSFT) fell 9%, while AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) dropped nearly 10%. NVIDIA’s flat performance stood out, but its post-earnings dip (-1% Friday) reflected broader skepticism.

Direxion’s Jake Behan noted NVIDIA’s role as a "market bellwether," while Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda highlighted "clear lack of momentum" despite positive catalysts. Northlight’s Chris Zaccarelli warned of AI infrastructure spending concerns but acknowledged tech giants’ robust profitability and real investments in data centers and chips.

**"Speculative Barometer"** Bitcoin (BTC-USD) tumbled to near $80,000 last week, down ~10% year-to-date, dragging firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) (-40%). Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick called crypto a "critical gauge of speculation," linked to tech stocks. Macquarie’s Viktor Shvets likened the AI-crypto nexus to Japan’s "keiretsu" model, where interconnected risks amplify downturns.

**Economic Data & Earnings Calendar** *Monday*: Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Earnings: Agilent (A), Symbotic (SYM), Keysight (KEYS), Zoom (ZM), StoneX (SNEX). *Tuesday*: Retail sales, PPI, FHFA Housing Index, Consumer Confidence. Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), Dell (DELL), Autodesk (ADSK), Kohl’s (KSS), Best Buy (BBY). *Wednesday*: Jobless claims, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, Fed Beige Book. Earnings: Deere (DE), Li Auto (LI). *Thursday-Friday*: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving; limited activity.

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