Zhongtai Securities maintained its "Buy" rating on BEKE-W (02423), citing the company's industry leadership position and nationwide strategic expansion as key drivers for benefiting from sustained industry growth. The brokerage forecasts adjusted net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB5.38 billion, RMB6.54 billion, and RMB7.29 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.1x, 21.5x, and 19.3x.

BEKE reported Q3 2025 results with total revenue reaching RMB72.39 billion (+16.1% YoY), while adjusted net profit declined 16.8% YoY to RMB2.91 billion due to gross margin compression from 25.3% to 21.4%. Despite market pressures, the company demonstrated resilience with continued revenue growth.

Operational highlights: 1. Store network expanded 27.3% YoY to 61,393 locations 2. Agent workforce grew 14.5% YoY to 546,000 professionals

Business segment performance: 1. Existing home transactions: GTV rose 5.8% to RMB505.6 billion, though net revenue dipped 3.6% to RMB6 billion 2. New home sales: GTV fell 13.7% to RMB196.3 billion with net revenue down 14.1% to RMB6.6 billion 3. Home renovation: Net revenue increased 2.4% to RMB4.3 billion 4. Rental services: Net revenue surged 45.3% to RMB5.7 billion driven by inventory growth 5. Emerging businesses: Net revenue declined to RMB400 million from RMB500 million

Share repurchase update: - Q3 2025 buybacks reached $281 million, the highest quarterly amount in two years - Year-to-date repurchases totaled $675 million (+15.7% YoY) - Cumulative buybacks since September 2022 stand at $2.3 billion, representing 11.5% of pre-repurchase shares outstanding

The expanded repurchase program reflects management's confidence in future growth while enhancing shareholder returns.

Risk factors include potential deeper-than-expected property market downturn and data reporting lags.