HK Stock Movement | ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) Surges Over 4% as Bulk Parcel Volume Maintains Strong Growth; Analysts Expect Market Share Recovery Next Year

Stock News

2025/11/25

ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) rose over 4%, reaching HK$13.62 by the time of writing, with a trading volume of HK$15.42 million. The company recently released its Q3 2025 results, with CLSA noting that revenue and adjusted net profit grew 11% and 7% YoY, respectively. Adjusted net profit per parcel improved to RMB 0.27 from RMB 0.21 in Q2, supported by only a RMB 0.02 increase in core per-parcel costs due to new transit centers coming online.

CLSA expects anti-cutthroat competition policies to remain in place, with regulators enforcing price floors to curb excessive price wars. Given ZTO's superior customer structure, the brokerage anticipates a market share recovery in 2026 and has raised 2025–2026 net profit forecasts by 2%.

Zheshang Securities reported that ZTO handled 9.57 billion parcels in Q3 (+9.8% YoY), capturing 19.4% market share. Bulk parcel volume grew nearly 50% YoY, continuing to drive profitability. The company revised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting 38.2–38.7 billion parcels (+12.3%–13.8% YoY). Adjusted net profit per parcel stood at RMB 0.26 in Q3 (vs. RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024), up RMB 0.05 from Q2. Post-holiday price hikes and peak season demand are expected to sustain pricing support.

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