CICC: Long-Form Drama Regulations Enter Observation Window, Focus on Content Supply Innovation

Stock News
01/09

According to Yunhe data, the effective play volume of the Top 20 long-form dramas in 2025 decreased by 20% year-on-year, with 41 long-form dramas receiving an S+ Yunhe rating (a decrease of 3 series year-on-year), while the proportion of exclusively streamed domestic dramas saw a slight increase. The effective play volume of the Top 20 variety shows in 2025 fell by 10% year-on-year. The long-form drama industry was in a period of deep adjustment overall in 2025, and 2026 may serve as an observation window for new broadcasting regulations. The complementary nature of diverse formats—such as long-form dramas, short-form dramas, medium-length dramas, seasonal series, and online feature films—alongside new attempts like revenue-sharing incentives, innovative scheduling, and refined operations, may collectively promote a positive shift for the industry with policy support. CICC's main views are as follows:

In terms of competition, according to Yunhe, the effective play volume of original content on iQiyi, Tencent Video, and Youku declined year-on-year in 2025, while Mango TV saw year-on-year growth. The top three series by annual play volume were "The Legend of the Hidden Sea," "Da Feng Da Geng Ren," and "Xu Wo Yao Yan," with Tencent Video securing two spots. Mango TV benefited from dramas like "Guo Se Fang Hua," showing significant marginal improvement in annual play volume, but overall, the competitive landscape for long-form video dramas remained relatively stable.

Regarding the industry, Yunhe data indicates that 1) on the supply side: 624 new drama series were released in 2025, a decrease of 31 series year-on-year; period romance, modern romance, and historical/contemporary mystery/crime genres led the market. The four major platforms have a pipeline of 444 drama series for 2026, with 70% of projects overlapping with 2025, focusing primarily on realistic and historical epic themes. 2) On the operations side: In 2025, 32% of new domestic dramas were jointly broadcast on TV and online platforms, exclusively streamed series accounted for 83%, and revenue-sharing series made up 17%, with all figures remaining largely stable year-on-year; meanwhile, the proportion of free-with-limits and fully paid series increased compared to the previous year.

CICC believes the long-form drama industry was in a period of deep adjustment overall in 2025, and 2026 may serve as an observation window for new broadcasting regulations. The complementary nature of diverse formats—such as long-form dramas, short-form dramas, medium-length dramas, seasonal series, and online feature films—alongside new attempts like revenue-sharing incentives, innovative scheduling, and refined operations, may collectively promote a positive shift for the industry with policy support.

The competitive landscape for variety shows is relatively stable. According to Yunhe, the market share of variety show play volume across the four major platforms in Q4 2025 was largely consistent with the full-year competitive pattern. Mango TV maintains a solid advantage in variety shows, although the effective play volume of new seasons for established IPs (variety show sequels) was generally lower than their previous seasons, and new variety shows struggled to break through. For 2026, it is advised to focus on content innovation and marginal improvements in advertising sponsorship.

Relevant stocks: It is recommended to continuously monitor the implementation progress of new broadcasting regulations and the profit elasticity of leading platforms under the new content cycle. Mango Excellent Media Co.,Ltd. (300413.SZ) and iQiyi Inc. (IQ.US) are recommended; also monitor LINMON MEDIA (09857), CHINA LIT (00772), and Zhejiang Huace Film&Tv Co.,Ltd. (300133.SZ), among others. Risk factors include intensifying industry competition, rising content costs, and tightening regulatory oversight.

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10