On June 23, PetroChina (00857.HK) fell 3.17% in regular trading, trading at HKD 8.87, with turnover of HKD 460 million.

On the news front, US-Iran first high-level talks concluded in Switzerland under the memorandum of understanding framework, with parties agreeing on a 60-day timeline for a final agreement and establishing a conflict resolution coordination group for Lebanon. WTI crude broke below USD 76/barrel, nearly erasing all geopolitical premium accumulated since the conflict began, down sharply from the prior high of USD 93.50.

Institutions previously estimated approximately USD 15-20 per barrel of geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. With the ceasefire signal progressively materializing and progress on Hormuz Strait navigation, this premium has been rapidly compressing. However, analysts note that supply-side recovery still requires time, as approximately 500 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf region, and infrastructure bottlenecks persist. One research house forecasts oil prices will remain above USD 80 in the second half, projecting PetroChina's Q2 earnings to grow approximately 50% year-over-year, with a target price of HKD 12.

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