German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd raised its 2026 earnings forecast again on September 28, expecting full-year EBITDA of between $3.9 billion and $4.4 billion, up from its previous forecast of $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion. The company said sustained strong market demand and spot rate trends were the main reasons for the adjustment.

The operating profit forecast was also raised in tandem. Hapag-Lloyd lifted its full-year EBIT forecast from $100 million to $1.1 billion to a range of $1.25 billion to $1.75 billion. Based on the midpoint of the ranges, the new EBITDA forecast is about $950 million higher than before, while the EBIT forecast is about $900 million higher. This is the company's second upward revision to its full-year guidance this year. In July, Hapag-Lloyd had already raised its EBITDA forecast to $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion due to improved second-quarter operations. In the second quarter, its container shipping volume reached about 3.48 million TEUs, up from about 3.36 million TEUs a year earlier, while average freight rates rose 9% year on year to $1,475 per TEU. The company said at the time that strong Asian exports and improving U.S. demand drove the recovery in volumes and spot rates.

The rebound in freight rates is still accompanied by cost pressures. The improvement in rates has not yet fully translated into profit growth. Hapag-Lloyd reported second-quarter EBITDA of $829 million, slightly above $820 million a year earlier, while EBIT fell to $176 million from $189 million a year earlier. The company said fuel, insurance, warehousing, route adjustments, and inland transportation costs related to the Middle East conflict increased quarterly costs by about $600 million. Recent rate trends on different routes have also diverged. Industry data from September 24 showed that rates on the Shanghai-to-Los Angeles route rose 2% for the week, while rates on the Shanghai-to-Rotterdam and Shanghai-to-Genoa routes fell 4% and 5%, respectively. Hapag-Lloyd said in its latest announcement that rate volatility and ongoing geopolitical challenges will still affect its full-year earnings forecast.