According to Shao Zhiming, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management Asia at Lombard Odier, tensions with Iran show no signs of easing. While Iran's foreign minister has welcomed proposals to end the conflict, the U.S. remains unwilling to negotiate. The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a shortage of crude oil supply, driving Brent crude futures above $100 per barrel. He anticipates that the current surge in oil prices could prolong the upward trend in U.S. inflation until the middle of next year. Shao noted that with oil prices at current levels, market focus has shifted to how long high prices will persist, their impact on global inflation, and how central banks will respond. "Currently, Brent futures prices for September this year, March next year, and September next year are at $87, $77, and $74 per barrel, respectively, all significantly higher than a month ago. This suggests that under a baseline scenario, oil prices may not retreat to $75—a level with limited economic impact—until mid-next year. As a result, U.S. CPI is expected to have upward momentum over the next 12 to 18 months, which will constrain the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve." Additionally, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision early on Thursday, March 19, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged. Attention will be on the released dot plot and economic projections. Shao believes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may express uncertainty about how oil prices will affect U.S. inflation expectations during the post-meeting press conference. "However, the U.S. currently has no need to cut rates to support economic conditions. Moreover, the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.73% also reflects market expectations that future interest rates will remain around current levels." Shao also commented that Hong Kong stocks have recently shown strong resilience, partly because emerging market funds are overweight in Taiwanese and South Korean equities and tend to sell these markets first when reducing exposure. Additionally, intervention by "national team" funds has helped maintain a slow-bull market trend.