With less than one day remaining until the final oil price adjustment window of 2025 (scheduled for 24:00 on December 22), the 25th price revision this year is confirmed to be a downward adjustment. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline in December and positions 2025 as the year with the steepest oil price drop in recent years.

Latest forecasts indicate this adjustment will push December’s cumulative price reduction beyond 200 yuan per ton, with 95-octane gasoline dropping by 0.2 yuan per liter. For the entire year, oil prices are projected to decline by over 0.7 yuan per liter, making 2025 the "year of the sharpest decline" after 25 adjustment cycles.

Despite three consecutive days of gains in international crude prices, the domestic downward trend remains unchanged. On December 19, WTI January light crude settled at $56.66 per barrel, up 2.51% over three days, while Brent February crude closed at $60.47 per barrel, rising 2.63% in the same period.

Under China’s refined oil pricing mechanism, significant drops in international crude prices during earlier statistical days of this cycle have kept the 10-day average at low levels. The WTI and Brent averages stood at $57.15 and $60.85 per barrel, respectively, down $0.05 per barrel from the previous statistical period, further widening tomorrow’s expected price cut.

Current national average fuel prices remain low: 92-octane gasoline at 6.83 yuan per liter, 95-octane at 7.29 yuan, and 0-diesel at 6.45 yuan. Post-adjustment, averages will dip further, setting new multi-year lows.

Independent analysis suggests a -3.86% crude change rate as of December 18, predicting reductions of 165 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. Translated to retail prices, 92-octane, 95-octane, and 0-diesel will drop by 0.13, 0.14, and 0.14 yuan per liter, respectively.

For consumers, the savings will be tangible. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost about 6.5 yuan less after this adjustment.