On August 25, 2025, at the morning opening, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Coking coal surged over 6%, coke rose more than 4%, while fuel oil, glass, and industrial silicon climbed over 3%. On the decline side, red dates, urea, and peanuts posted modest drops.

Guangda Futures Analysis:

Regarding data, the US August Markit Composite PMI preliminary reading reached 55.4, hitting a 9-month high and exceeding expectations of 53.5 and the previous value of 55.1. The manufacturing PMI preliminary reading was 53.3, marking the highest level since May 2022, surpassing expectations of 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. However, the services PMI preliminary reading of 55.4 represented a 2-month low, above expectations of 54.2 but below the previous value of 55.7.

On interest rate cuts, Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the global central bank meeting were notably dovish. First, he emphasized downside risks to employment, stating that "once decline begins, it will accelerate and worsen," while persistent upside inflation risks exist but are relatively small. Second, he believes current conditions have met the criteria for monetary policy adjustment, sending a clear signal of impending rate cuts. Third, the monetary policy framework is shifting away from flexible inflation targeting (FAIT) toward a simple 2% inflation target, while maintaining focus on labor market "shortages."

Additionally, the latest CME "Fed Watch" data shows a 15.9% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September and an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut. For October, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, with a 48.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 44.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.

Overall, Powell's dovish comments at last Friday's global central bank meeting have strengthened investor expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Market participants are watching whether prices will test resistance at recent highs again.