JPMorgan has unveiled its inaugural valuation model for Waymo, projecting explosive growth over the next five years for the Alphabet-owned autonomous vehicle company. The firm anticipates that Waymo's annual trip volume will skyrocket from 15 million in 2025 to a staggering 277 million by 2030, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79%. Total bookings are expected to approach $6 billion, capturing approximately 6% of the U.S. ride-hailing market.

This forecast coincides with Waymo's recent completion of a $16 billion funding round, valuing the company at $126 billion, a mere 15 months after its previous $5.6 billion raise. Waymo stated that the new capital will enable it to "move forward at an unprecedented pace." During this period, its weekly paid trips have nearly tripled from 150,000 to over 400,000, with the company completing 15 million trips throughout 2025.

According to sources, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth, in a report dated February 3rd, believes Waymo's vehicle fleet is expected to expand from fewer than 3,000 vehicles at the end of 2025 to over 35,000 by the end of 2030, representing a CAGR of 67%. By 2026, the fleet size is projected to double to approximately 5,725 vehicles, facilitating over 35 million trips and generating more than $800 million in total bookings.

The bank contends that autonomous driving will expand the total market size, with the majority of Waymo's growth stemming from incremental demand, though it will also capture some share from traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft. Currently operational in six markets, including Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, Waymo plans to launch in 10 new U.S. cities by 2026 and expand into markets like London and Tokyo.

Aggressive expansion plans underpin the high-growth expectations. JPMorgan's valuation model is based on Waymo's city expansion strategy and fleet growth trajectory. The bank expects Waymo to enter 10 new U.S. cities in 2026, including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando, while simultaneously commencing operations in London and potentially Tokyo, bringing the total number of operational and testing cities to over 20.

Specifically for 2026, JPMorgan estimates Waymo's fourth-quarter trip volume will reach approximately 11.6 million, equating to a weekly operational run-rate of around 900,000 trips. This aligns closely with Waymo's own target of achieving 1 million weekly trips by the end of 2026.

Regarding market share, JPMorgan predicts Waymo will capture about 1% of both U.S. ride-hailing trip volume and total bookings share in 2026, increasing to roughly 6% by 2030. However, the bank emphasizes that autonomous technology acts as a market expander; Waymo's success will help grow the overall market pie rather than merely taking share from existing players.

The $16 billion funding round accelerates commercial deployment. Waymo announced on February 2nd the completion of a $16 billion funding round, with investors including primary backer Alphabet, as well as institutions like Dragoneer, DST Global, and Sequoia Capital. This follows a $5.6 billion raise in October 2024, with only 15 months separating the two substantial funding events.

During this interval, Waymo's operational metrics surged rapidly. Weekly paid trips grew from 150,000 to over 400,000, and the 15 million trips completed in full-year 2025 tripled the 2024 volume. Reports indicate that Waymo reached a weekly run-rate of 450,000 trips in December 2025, an 80% increase from 250,000 in April 2025.

Waymo stated it will use the new funds to advance its global expansion "at an unprecedented speed," targeting an operational rhythm exceeding 1 million weekly trips by the end of 2026—approximately 2.5 times the current level of 400,000. The company is laying infrastructure for ride-hailing operations in over 20 cities, including deployments in international markets like Tokyo and London.

JPMorgan notes that this large-scale financing will support a significant near-term expansion of Waymo's vehicle fleet, providing the capital necessary to achieve its targets of 5,725 vehicles by end-2026 and 35,275 vehicles by 2030, the latter representing a thirteen-fold increase from the current fleet size.

Airport and highway access emerge as critical breakthroughs. Waymo recently achieved significant progress regarding airport access. Last week, the company announced the commencement of commercial operations at San Francisco International Airport (SFO), initially available to select users with plans to roll out to all users in the coming months. The timing is strategically significant, preceding the Super Bowl on February 8th and preparing for the FIFA World Cup from June to July, which will host six matches in Santa Clara.

Previously, Waymo began operations at San Jose Airport and received permission to test at Newark Airport. At Dallas Love Field and San Antonio International Airport, Waymo has initiated employee testing. The company disclosed in December 2025 that cumulative trip volume at Phoenix and San Jose airports had surpassed 500,000.

JPMorgan estimates that airport trips constitute approximately 15% of Uber's Mobility gross bookings and carry higher margins. Waymo gaining broader access to airports and highways could potentially impact Uber's Mobility gross bookings and EBITDA in the medium term. However, the bank also notes that autonomous driving, overall, is likely to expand the total addressable market size.

Operational data from the California Public Utilities Commission shows Waymo's trip volume in California reached about 2.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, a 20% quarter-over-quarter increase and a threefold year-over-year jump. September alone saw monthly trips exceed 1 million for the first time, equivalent to a weekly run-rate of approximately 237,000 trips, accounting for over 50% of Waymo's global weekly volume of 450,000.

User data indicates growth but retention needs improvement. According to Sensor Tower data, monthly active users (MAU) of the Waymo One app grew 63% year-over-year in January 2026, equivalent to about 6.0% of Lyft's U.S. MAU and approximately 3.3% of Uber's U.S. MAU. In terms of downloads, Waymo One represented about 25% of Lyft's and 34% of Uber's volumes.

However, in user engagement metrics, Waymo still trails traditional ride-hailing apps. The daily active user to monthly active user ratio (DAU/MAU) is 11% for Uber and 12% for Lyft, while Waymo One stands at only 8%. Retention rate data shows Waymo One lagging behind Uber and Lyft at various time points, potentially indicating a higher proportion of trial or tourism-related one-time usage.

Google search trends reveal that in five of Waymo's operational markets, its search popularity has surpassed Lyft in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Austin, while slightly trailing Lyft in Los Angeles and Atlanta. Notably, in Las Vegas, Zoox—which only began public operations in September—has also seen its search popularity exceed Lyft's, despite its very limited operational area.

Data from Bloomberg Second Measure indicates Waymo's sales grew 134% year-over-year in Q4 2025, higher than the 117% growth in Q3, but the month-over-month growth rate within Q4 showed a decelerating trend, with December registering only a 2% increase. This data does not include trips booked via the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta.