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In an environment of ample liquidity, what subsequent catalysts are worth anticipating? In our previous report "Spring Rally Still Has Room to Reach New Highs," we emphasized that the recent cooling-off phase primarily affects the market's rhythm and structure rather than its overall upward trend. The core logic supporting the spring rally remains intact, indicating this market upswing is only halfway through. This week, although the pace of gains has moderated, the upward trajectory persists, with profitable effects broadening across a wider range of sectors.

Abundant liquidity serves as the core driving force behind this spring rally, underpinned by new premium inflows from the insurance sector's strong "good start," the concentration of maturing household deposits, and capital inflows attracted by Renminbi appreciation. On one hand, channel data indicates a stellar performance for the insurance sector's "good start" this year, supporting substantial new premium inflows into the market. According to channel data disclosed by industry observers, as of mid-January, leading insurers have generally seen individual agent channel premium growth exceed 30%, with many companies surpassing the ten-billion-yuan mark in regular premium income from this channel. The bancassurance channel has even witnessed growth doubling. The mandatory requirement that approximately 30% of new premiums must be allocated to the market provides a significant source of incremental funds. On the other hand, based on the maturity periods of household time deposits, the first half of this year is expected to be a peak period for maturing deposits. Coupled with a seasonal rise in risk appetite, the first quarter presents a crucial window for households to increase their allocation to equity assets. Household time deposits began rising from 2022, reaching a阶段性高点 by mid-2023. Assuming a mainstream 3-year maturity period, the first half of this year will see a concentration of these deposits maturing. Against a backdrop of declining interest rates, these funds are seeking new investment pools. The seasonal increase in risk appetite further supports the first quarter as a key period for households to boost equity holdings.

Furthermore, the ongoing appreciation of the Renminbi is attracting the return of overseas capital, becoming another source of liquidity for the spring rally. This Renminbi appreciation is accelerating the回流 of foreign funds. In December 2025, the surplus under the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales for clients reached a historic high of $99.9 billion, with the securities investment component surplus hitting a record $11.5 billion. The回流 of domestic funds awaiting conversion and overseas capital, driven by Renminbi appreciation, provides incremental investment funds for domestic enterprises, households, and foreign investors, solidifying its role as a liquidity source for the current rally.

Within this ample liquidity environment, supportive fundamentals and policies underpin market risk appetite. Consequently, capital is responding actively to various macro and industry narratives, driving a broadening of profitable effects, which may become a defining structural feature of this spring rally. Positive fundamental developments are boosting sentiment; improved domestic macro data in December has stabilized expectations regarding economic slowdown, while structural highlights in annual report previews point to promising trends. Clear signals of front-loaded policy support, with recent coordinated efforts in real estate, consumption, and monetary policy, provide a favorable macro backdrop. Continued progress in industries like AI and commercial aerospace adds further catalysts. With risk appetite supported, abundant incremental funds are actively engaging with various narratives, potentially pushing profitable effects to widen further and drive the spring rally to greater depths. So, what structural catalysts are worth watching next?

First, the coming week remains a window密集 with industry-specific catalysts, notably the upcoming super earnings week for North American tech giants, which could positively influence domestic market trends. The sustainability of tech giants' capital expenditure increases and the monetization potential of AI investments will be key market focuses, potentially benefiting A-share sectors related to North American computing power and AI applications. Additionally, catalysts are expected in areas like domestic computing/chips, space-based computing, and controlled nuclear fusion.

Second, the coming week also enters the final密集 disclosure window for annual report previews, where the impact of earnings on market structure is likely to become more pronounced. According to current disclosure rules, listed companies must conditionally disclose their annual performance forecasts by January 31, with mandatory disclosure required for situations like net profit being negative, turning a profit from loss, or increasing/decreasing by 50% year-on-year. As of January 23, the disclosure rate for this cycle is 16.61%. Historically, late January sees a peak in disclosures, with the final rate typically reaching around 55%. As previews are密集 released, the influence of earnings on market structure will intensify.

Based on disclosed previews, sectors showing high net profit growth are concentrated in computing power, chemicals, new energy, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers. As of January 23, 889 A-share companies have released their 2025 annual report forecasts/express reports. Among them, 304 companies forecast net profit growth exceeding 50%, primarily in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment, components), chemicals, new energy (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment), pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, new metal materials), and computers.

Currently, stocks with earnings exceeding expectations in the annual report previews are mainly found in memory storage, battery energy storage, grid equipment, chemicals, and innovative drugs. Defining "earnings exceed expectations" as a company's median net profit forecast/express report profit surpassing pre-disclosure consensus estimates by over 10%, the current focus is on: memory storage, new energy (battery storage, grid equipment), chemicals (agrochemicals, plastics), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs).

During the earnings disclosure period, the focus should remain on uncovering fundamental highlights. As the disclosure peak for A-share annual report previews coincides with concentrated earnings releases from North American tech giants, the impact of earnings on market structure will likely become more significant. The emphasis should remain on identifying fundamental strengths.

Integrating clues from annual report previews with recent marginal upward revisions in profit estimates, sectors currently showing promising earnings but with relatively low gains during this rally are mainly concentrated in AI hardware (North American computing power, consumer electronics), batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials. First, among the sectors displaying high growth/surprises in the current previews, those with relatively muted performance in this rally mainly include brokers, pharmaceuticals, batteries, and AI hardware. Industries with a high number of stocks showing strong growth/surprises in the previews, yet experiencing lower gains, are primarily brokers, pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine), batteries, and AI hardware (communication equipment, components, consumer electronics, computer equipment, optoelectronics). Additionally, utilities/environmental services (power, gas, environmental治理) and some consumer sectors (pet economy, light industrial manufacturing, apparel, and home textiles) also feature.

Second, analyzing marginal changes in profit estimates helps identify sectors where annual report previews might be favorable. Since last November, industries with significant upward estimate revisions are concentrated in:

Technology: Beyond the high-growth upstream computing hardware (communication equipment, components, semiconductors), recent estimate upgrades are notable in mid-downstream application areas like consumer electronics, software, and media (film/theater, gaming, TV broadcasting);

Advanced Manufacturing: New energy (photovoltaic equipment, batteries, wind power equipment), defense (marine equipment), automotive (commercial vehicles), robotics chain (automation equipment, home appliance components), and medical services;

Cyclicals: Building materials (glass/fiberglass), non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, minor metals), coal, steel, chemicals (agrochemicals, non-metallic materials), shipping/ports, and environmental治理;

Consumption: Food processing, retail, major home appliances, and internet e-commerce;

Finance: Insurance, brokers, and rural commercial banks.

Among these, sectors that have underperformed in terms of gains during this rally primarily include: AI hardware (consumer electronics, communication equipment, components), new energy (batteries), cyclicals (steel), dividend-yield stocks (major home appliances, coal, shipping/ports, logistics, rural commercial banks), consumption (retail, food processing, film/theater), and non-bank financials (insurance, brokers).

February is expected to usher in another core window for bullish positioning, warranting renewed attention to thematic investments. Historical patterns suggest that regarding the early-year market rhythm, following the completion of January's earnings previews, February returns to a fundamental data lull. Combined with ample liquidity around the Spring Festival, the period leading up to the "Two Sessions" often represents a core window for market activity, where styles like small-micro caps and growth sectors, known for high elasticity, tend to perform better. Market upward elasticity is expected to increase once again during this time. The fundamental data lull typically sees a rise in risk appetite, creating a classic window driven by liquidity and sentiment. From a calendar effect perspective, February is one of the months with the highest historical win rates for major indices. Structurally, high-elasticity sectors like small-micro caps and growth often outperform, potentially making it the core window for the spring rally to reach new highs.

Structurally, attention to thematic investments can be heightened again in February. Looking at trading turnover ratios, most themes have recently experienced some cooling. Entering the February fundamental data lull, as capital shifts focus back to long-term growth potential, and with a密集 schedule of industry catalysts approaching (especially for AI applications), it is appropriate to increase focus on previously cooled themes. These include AI applications (media, computers), "Musk-themed" concepts (commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, assisted driving), and the power shortage narrative (grid equipment, controlled nuclear fusion).

Risk Disclaimer Fluctuations in economic data, policy easing falling short of expectations, and slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts.