September brought a clear rise in the monthly average crude oil price, providing solid cost-side support for asphalt. Combined with pre-holiday rush work on some road projects that drove continued release of rigid asphalt demand, and still-tight circulation of asphalt spot resources in certain regions, asphalt spot price gains widened further in September. In the short term, the center of gravity for international oil price fluctuations may shift lower, and as rigid asphalt demand gradually declines, cost-side and demand-side support for asphalt spot prices will weaken somewhat, but tight supply will continue to benefit asphalt prices. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, the October average asphalt price is expected to extend its month-on-month rise.

Bullish factors dominate the market as September asphalt spot average prices rise broadly month-on-month

Asphalt spot prices in September 2026 were mainly on a sustained upward path. As of the end of September, the average asphalt spot price for the month was 5,799.79 yuan per ton, up 1,198.08 yuan per ton month-on-month, a gain of 26.04%. The highest price in September was 6,334.29 yuan per ton, appearing on September 28, while the lowest was 5,055 yuan per ton, appearing on September 1. In terms of fluctuation range, the domestic asphalt price swing in September was 1,279.29 yuan per ton, a marked widening of gains for the month. Overall, cost-side and supply-side support persisted in the September asphalt spot market, and combined with demand released by rush work on some key projects ahead of the dual holidays, the spot average price rose broadly.

Crude oil monthly average continues to climb, sustaining support for spot prices

First, from the cost side, oil prices in September generally rose first before fluctuating lower, with large swings; U.S. crude moved in a range of $90 to $106 per barrel, while Brent ranged from $94 to $109 per barrel. The United States continued its maritime escort operations, protecting tanker passage near Oman and declaring the strait open, but because Iran repeatedly attacked tankers, actual throughput was low and freight and insurance costs surged. In addition, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and tensions in Yemen disrupted the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while an attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline temporarily halted oil exports, pushing oil prices higher in succession. Subsequently, the market focused on China-U.S. peace talks and Iran's speech at the UN General Assembly, with bearish news emerging that the United States would hold peace talks with Iran, and the Saudi east-west pipeline gradually recovered, even exporting oil through the strait; market worries eased and oil prices gradually retreated from highs. However, because crude prices spiked sharply earlier, the monthly average still rose broadly month-on-month. The U.S. crude monthly average was $96.5 per barrel, up 17.04% from the previous month and up 51.9% year-on-year; the Brent monthly average was $101.74 per barrel, up 15.51% from the previous month and up 50.55% year-on-year. Middle East geopolitical changes remained the core driver of crude price fluctuations in September, with repeated geopolitical shifts keeping oil prices volatile at high levels, which on one hand lifted sentiment in the asphalt spot market and on the other provided some cost-side support for asphalt spot prices.

Supply-demand conditions continue to tighten, giving strong support to asphalt spot prices

Second, from the fundamentals, major refinery feedstock costs rose considerably this month, production profits declined, and feedstock supply at local refineries was generally tight, so the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to produce asphalt was broadly constrained, with asphalt unit operating load rates mainly falling this month. As of the end of September, the monthly average asphalt unit operating load rate was 22.84%, down 2.43 percentage points from the previous month's average and down 22.31 percentage points year-on-year. Combined with demand released by pre-holiday rush work on some key projects, social warehouse and refinery inventory resources were consumed, and asphalt refinery inventories and social inventories across regions generally fell to year-to-date lows, with some brands maintaining limited shipments; the tight circulation of asphalt spot resources persisted, supply-demand conditions tightened, and support for the bottom of asphalt spot prices was fairly strong. Looking to next month, on the cost side, after the full escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the situation has again shifted into a tug-of-war of "negotiation signals starting but differences hard to resolve," with geopolitics and strait navigation dominating the oil market; cost-side support for the domestic asphalt market remains but is weakening. From a supply-demand fundamental perspective, elevated asphalt spot prices are curbing the release of rigid asphalt demand, downstream operating enthusiasm is insufficient, and as temperatures fall, rigid demand may gradually decline. In addition, asphalt output continues to slide and current asphalt inventories have already fallen to historic lows, so spot resources may remain tight in the short term. However, as demand in northern regions continues to decline, northern asphalt resources may gradually move south to ease the tight supply situation, and supply-side support for asphalt prices is expected to strengthen first and then weaken. Therefore, with bullish and bearish factors contending in the October asphalt spot market, asphalt spot prices are expected to rise first and then fall, with the monthly average likely extending its gain to around 6,250 yuan per ton.