Amundi CIO Predicts China's Chip Industry Could Soon Have Its "DeepSeek Moment"

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昨天

According to Amundi Group's Chief Investment Officer, Vincent Mortier, China could develop competitive semiconductor chips within three to four years, potentially experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" that would significantly impact major chip-producing markets like South Korea and Taiwan.

Chip stocks have recently become a focal point for investors, driving stock markets in Japan and South Korea to repeated record highs. Mortier acknowledges the growth potential of the semiconductor sector but cautions that current valuations for related stocks are excessive, suggesting a risk of short-term correction.

Mortier explains that investing in the chip sector inevitably involves the market's favored trio: Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and NVIDIA (NVDA). However, he believes making a concentrated bet on chip manufacturers at this stage may not be wise. "Three names say it all... these are quality companies, but they are simply too expensive," he stated.

Regarding China's domestic chip industry, Mortier noted that the country is currently making a full push for breakthroughs in local semiconductor technology. With significant government resource allocation and continuous corporate investment, the pace of industrial self-sufficiency is accelerating rapidly.

Beyond domestic chips, robotics is another market focus. Mortier admits that some related companies exhibit signs of a bubble, but he does not see this as a systemic issue for the overall market. He believes long-term demand in China will persist, attracting investors to quality firms, though industry competition will intensify, making stock selection more challenging.

Although Chinese equities have been trading in a volatile range recently, Mortier points out that despite ongoing challenges in domestic consumption, China's export competitiveness remains very strong. Coupled with market valuations that are still at low levels, investors have reason to maintain optimism about the medium-term outlook.

Mortier emphasized that China, as part of an investment portfolio, remains a good tool for diversification due to its historically low correlation with other markets. He remains positive on the market's prospects, stating, "It's always the same question, not if, but when [to increase China exposure]."

As for investment strategy, he expresses a preference for the CSI 300 index over the A50 index. His reasoning is that the CSI 300 has broader coverage, offering a more comprehensive reflection of the market's performance, whereas the A50 is more concentrated and tends to represent only the very largest companies.

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