At the 2026 Tsinghua PBC School of Finance Chief Economists Forum, themed around the global economic rebalancing and international monetary system reconstruction, Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Zhongtai International, shared his insights on the current global landscape.

Li pointed out that the deep-seated logic behind global economic imbalance and recession stems from an exceptionally long period of peace. With 81 years having passed since World War II, this era marks one of the most extended peaceful phases in history. During this time, the global population surged from 2.5 billion to 8.1 billion, while biodiversity has suffered greatly, intensifying the conflict between humanity and nature. Under prolonged peace, with unchanged rules, interpersonal conflicts have escalated, and the wealth gap has widened as a universal phenomenon. This imbalance manifests comprehensively: within nations, between nations, among individuals, and in strained international credit relations.

He emphasized that the global economy has now entered a debt-driven era. In his view, China has room to continue increasing government debt, as its debt expansion has not triggered inflation. The prolonged low-inflation environment provides significant leeway for increased borrowing. Conversely, the United States cannot afford further debt due to its high inflation rates. While all three sectors in China—government, corporate, and household—have been leveraging, the household sector has begun to deleverage over the long term. At this stage, he argues, only government leverage can maintain economic balance, specifically at the central government level, given that local governments already carry high debt burdens.

Li also stressed the need to correct a misconception in external communications: Chinese exports have not grown rapidly over the past decade. In the last five years, China's cumulative export growth stood at 45.6%, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than the global average of 48.8%. Export price indices have been declining, and in value terms, Chinese exports have underperformed globally, contrary to Western perceptions of "crowding out." The world is witnessing a phase of rapid trade growth, and this needs to be highlighted in external messaging.

Looking ahead, Li noted that as the AI era dawns, international relations are showing renewed improvement, with strong performances in stock markets. During this fourth technological revolution, he advocates for enhanced global cooperation, particularly with the United States. China and the US share a complementary relationship, and collaboration is essential to overcoming global imbalances and recession. Despite the US treating China as a competitor, the complementarity between the two nations is unmistakable.