On Wednesday, June 17th, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold prices oscillated higher, currently trading around $4,340. The preliminary US-Iran peace agreement not only triggered a significant pullback in oil prices but also directly dampened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year. This has put pressure on the US dollar, continuing to provide support for a gold price rebound.

The gold market consolidated within a narrow range yesterday. Opening at $4,311, the price initially dipped to $4,305 before a strong rally. The daily session peaked at $4,354 before consolidating, ultimately closing at $4,331. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candle with a long upper wick, resembling an inverted hammer.

Key Fundamental Drivers

On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV published the terms of a 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding, offering more detail than the version released by Iran's Mehr News Agency. US media reported that the United States will permit Iran to immediately resume oil export sales. Vance stated that the waiver of Strait of Hormuz transit fees is explicitly written into the agreement, and Trump may decide to announce the agreement before Friday. Reports emerged that the US refused to show Israel the US-Iran memorandum. Israeli media indicated that some US Air Force refueling tankers have begun withdrawing from Israel. Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf stated that Israel must withdraw its forces from Lebanon. Iran's Foreign Minister announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will commence on the same day the two countries sign the memorandum of understanding.

Regarding economic data, the Bank of Japan raised its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years. The central bank also decided to suspend the reduction of its bond purchase scale starting next April. Oil prices fell sharply for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, with Brent crude closing down 4.43% at $79.24 and US crude closing down 5.76% at $76.70, both marking their lowest closing prices in three months. The US Dollar Index fell 0.11% to 99.55 on Tuesday, while US Treasury yields also declined. The 10-year yield settled at 4.424%, down 4.5 basis points, and the two-year yield fell to 4.047%.

In other news, key events for the day include the US Retail Sales Month-over-Month data for May at 20:30, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending June 12th at 22:30, the Federal Reserve FOMC's interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections at 02:00 the following day, and a monetary policy press conference by Fed Chair Wash at 02:30. The market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, investors are more focused on whether the policy statement will remove language indicating an accommodative bias and on the tone of Chair Wash's remarks during the press conference.

Technical Perspective on Gold

From a daily chart perspective, gold opened higher this week, influenced by US-Iran related news. However, the actual upward movement was not commensurate with the impact of the news, with the rally only reaching near previous highs and failing to test the 20-day moving average resistance around $4,400. This reflects a lack of inherent bullish momentum in gold at present. The market's focus is now shifting to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early tomorrow morning, which is expected to potentially bring a disruptive shift in gold's direction.

If the Fed's policy stance is perceived as hawkish, gold could revert to a corrective trend. An unexpected rate hike could trigger an even more pronounced decline, with subsequent focus on the $4,000 level. Conversely, if the Fed's stance is perceived as dovish, gold could potentially break above the 20-day moving average resistance at $4,400.

Intraday Trading View

Analyzing the one-hour chart, gold is expected to oscillate within the hourly range and the daily moving average band during the Asian/European session. Initial focus is on the battle within the hourly range of $4,360-$4,310. The daily moving average band lies between $4,280 and $4,400. Any unusual price action during the US session should be viewed as a potential emotional, pre-Fed decision reaction.

Today's Trading Strategy

During the Asian/European session, consider short-term trades around the $4,360-$4,310 area, employing both long and short strategies with a 10-point stop-loss. If significant price movements occur around the US session, adjustments must be made promptly. Specific strategies for the late US or early morning session will require real-time adjustments based on market conditions.