Goldman Sachs released a research report indicating that several Macau gaming stocks are about to announce their Q4 2025 results, with expectations that investors will focus on the companies' profit trends. This focus stems from various operators expressing concerns over additional expenses related to the National Games in November and heightened competition. The investment bank forecasts that industry EBITDA for the period will increase by 4% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year. This growth is anticipated despite a 6% QoQ and 14% YoY rise in Gross Gaming Revenue, attributed to increased operating expenses and a shift in revenue mix towards the lower-margin VIP segment.

For the fourth quarter of last year, Goldman Sachs projects that Galaxy Entertainment's (00027) EBITDA will rise 28% quarter-on-quarter to $550 million, primarily driven by higher VIP win rates. Meanwhile, MGM China's (02282) EBITDA is expected to increase 8% QoQ to $328 million, owing to a robust recovery in gaming revenue. As for Sands China (01928), the bank estimates its EBITDA will grow 4% QoQ to $628 million, as gains from retail revenue were offset by higher operating and promotional expenses.

Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs forecasts overall gaming revenue to increase 8% year-on-year, with EBITDA rising 10%. This growth is projected to bring industry EBITDA and recurring free cash flow to $9.1 billion and $6.4 billion, respectively, nearing pre-pandemic levels. The bank believes the current sector valuation remains attractive and reiterated its "Buy" ratings on Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China.