International oil prices surged significantly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East over the past weekend, leading to a collective rally in the A-share market's oil and gas sector in recent days.

On March 2, the CSI Oil & Gas Industry Index, CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index, and SZSE Oil & Gas Index opened higher and continued to climb, closing up 7.63%, 9.18%, and 8.30%, respectively, by the end of the trading session. Several exchange-traded oil and gas themed funds, including Fullgoal S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry ETF (QDII) and Harvest S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry ETF (QDII), experienced collective limit-up gains.

On March 3, the three major oil and gas indices continued their upward trajectory, closing higher by 6.77%, 8.33%, and 8.50%, respectively, with multiple exchange-traded oil and gas themed funds again hitting daily gain limits. In response, fund managers issued frequent premium risk warnings and temporary trading halt announcements to cool market enthusiasm.

By March 4, the three major oil and gas indices opened higher but closed lower, registering declines of 2.81%, 2.45%, and 2.60%, respectively, with related exchange-traded funds also trending downward collectively.

Data from Tonghuashun iFinD shows that Brent Crude Oil Continuous (BRN0Y) recorded substantial gains on February 27, March 2, and March 3, closing up 3.35%, 7.14%, and 5.43%, respectively. On March 3, it reached an intraday high of $85.12 per barrel. On March 4, Brent Crude opened at $82.00, fluctuated upward during the session, and by 3:00 PM Beijing time, had risen 3.30% to $84.09.

Riding the wave of rising oil prices, oil and gas themed funds also delivered strong returns. As of March 3, the market included 50 such funds when counting different share classes separately, comprising 25 passive index equity funds, 18 QDII equity funds, and 7 QDII commodity funds. Among them, the top performers were China Universal CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF, Bosera CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF, and Yinhua CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF, with year-to-date net asset value increases of 56.86%, 55.97%, and 55.52%, respectively.

While fund net values climbed, some exchange-traded oil and gas themed funds frequently traded at premiums. From March 1 to 3:00 PM on March 4, a total of 27 premium risk warning announcements were issued by 10 such funds. Southern Crude Oil LOF and Fullgoal S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry ETF (QDII) issued the most warnings, each releasing five notices and undergoing multiple trading halts.

At 9:00 AM on March 4, Fullgoal Fund announced that its Fullgoal S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry ETF (QDII) had been trading at a significant premium to its indicative net asset value (IOPV) in the secondary market. The fund warned investors of the risks associated with盲目 investing at inflated prices, which could lead to substantial losses. To protect investor interests, the fund suspended trading from market open until 10:30 AM on March 4. If the premium failed to narrow effectively, the fund manager reserved the right to apply for intraday halts or extend suspension periods to alert the market.

Has trading enthusiasm for the S&P Oil & Gas ETF cooled? On March 2, Fullgoal S&P Oil & Gas ETF’s latest net asset value was 1.1488 yuan, while its secondary market closing price was 1.261 yuan, representing a 9.77% premium. On March 4, the fund opened at 1.248 yuan, down 10.02% from the previous close, then rose rapidly to an intraday high of 1.520 yuan—a 9.59% increase—before falling sharply toward the close to finish at 1.381 yuan, down 0.43% for the day.

Regarding future oil price trends, Kaiyuan Securities analyst He Ning stated that international oil prices may rise further due to escalating Middle East tensions.

Analysts from several international institutions, including Citi, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan, have also raised their oil price forecasts. Citi increased its short-term Brent crude price projection to $85 per barrel, noting that regional energy infrastructure risks have intensified under current conditions, with Brent likely to trade between $80 and $90 per barrel for at least the next week.