On June 16, Chalco (02600.HK) fell 3.17% in regular trading, trading at HK$9.15/share, with turnover of HK$201 million.

On the news front, Goldman Sachs issued a research report downgrading Chalco to a Sell rating and cutting its 12-month target price to HK$7.5. The bank noted that aluminum supply growth is accelerating both in China and overseas, projecting domestic capacity to exceed 48 million tonnes by end of the year. Goldman Sachs expects the Shanghai Futures Exchange spread to narrow from RMB 8,879/tonne in the first half to RMB 4,250/tonne in 2027, potentially causing a 50% decline in Chalco's recurring profit. Separately, Citi also lowered its target price from HK$8.89 to HK$7.6, cutting net profit forecasts for this year and next by 8% and 5% respectively while maintaining a Buy rating.

The stock has been under sustained selling pressure since its formal inclusion in the Hang Seng Index took effect on June 8, when it plunged 8%, exhibiting a classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact pattern with persistent net capital outflows. The broader aluminum sector remains weak today, with Rusal down 4.08%, China Hongqiao down 4.52%, and Nanshan Aluminium International down 3.82%.

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