With large-scale new investments such as semiconductor clusters and AI data centers beginning in earnest, the South Korean government has sharply raised its 2040 peak electricity demand forecast to 165GW (gigawatts). This marks an increase of up to 26.8GW compared to the previous projection made just a few months ago.

As the baseline for electricity demand shifts, the power mix—including renewables, nuclear power, and LNG—along with grid expansion plans under the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, will also need to be redefined.

The Ministry of Climate and Energy Environment and the general committee for formulating the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand held the 5th national policy discussion at the National Assembly Members' Hall on the 20th, unveiling a provisional plan for the "electricity demand re-forecast."

According to the results of a re-survey of corporate investment plans following the government's announcement of major projects, the potential contracted electricity demand for 2040 is approximately 40GW, including the early completion of the Yongin semiconductor cluster, the construction of a new cluster in the Honam region, and the expansion of wafer fabs in Pyeongtaek and Cheongju. Considering investment uncertainty, the government decided to prioritize 36.8GW of this amount for reflection in the 12th Basic Plan, with the remainder to be considered in the next basic plan depending on investment progress.

Demand from AI data centers is also set to surge significantly. Corporate investment plans for data centers by 2040, measured by contracted electricity, amount to 20.8GW. Given the level of project specificity, the government has decided to prioritize 10.8GW for discussion in the current basic plan, while the remaining 10GW will be addressed in the next plan as projects develop. As a result, the maximum electricity demand from data centers in 2040 is expected to reach 14.2GW.

Excluding trend-based growth, new demand is projected at 11.9GW, an increase of 7.9GW from the previous estimate of 4.0GW. In terms of electricity consumption, the net increase has also risen from the prior 26.5TWh to 84.9TWh, more than tripling in scale.