Bocom International released a research report stating that the passenger vehicle industry will enter a high-level consolidation phase in 2026. It forecasts full-year retail sales of passenger vehicles to grow 0.3% year-on-year to 24.45 million units, with new energy vehicle penetration exceeding 60%. For exports, the report projects overseas sales to reach 7.5-8 million units in 2026.

The firm recommends focusing on stocks with overseas production capacity and vertical integration advantages, such as BYD COMPANY (01211) and GEELY AUTO (00175), as well as XPENG-W (09868), which has scalability in Robotaxi and embodied AI. In the auto parts sector, it favors HESAI-W (02525).

With declining robot prices, Bocom expects smoother commercialization of consumer-facing humanoid robots in 2026. After year-end volatility, the sector is anticipated to enter a consolidation and rationalization phase. Key catalysts include Tesla's (TSLA.US) Optimus mass production orders and Gen3 prototype launch, along with confirmed supply chain orders for domestic manufacturers.

For heavy trucks, the report predicts a 5% year-on-year increase in mainland China sales (including exports) to about 1.1 million units in 2026, benefiting from policy tailwinds and accelerated new energy adoption. It highlights SINOTRUK (03808) and WEICHAI POWER (02338) as preferred picks.

In lithium batteries, Bocom notes strong energy storage demand and improving industry profitability, forecasting global lithium battery demand to grow approximately 22% year-on-year in 2026. It suggests focusing on cost and technology leaders like CATL (03750).