Macquarie has released a research report indicating that it has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM CHINA (02282) for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively. This revision primarily reflects the company's better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter. The target price has been slightly increased by 1% from HK$21.3 to HK$21.6, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.

The group's performance in the last quarter of the previous year exceeded expectations, with net revenue increasing 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HK$9.62 billion, which was 6% higher than the bank's forecast. Total gaming revenue reached HK$10.5 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the bank's prediction by 3.1%. Both the VIP segment, which grew 40% year-on-year, and the mass market segment, which increased 20% year-on-year, demonstrated robust growth.

Adjusted EBITDA reached a new quarterly record of HK$2.75 billion, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter rise, exceeding market expectations by 11%. Channel checks by the bank indicate that MGM CHINA plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year. It is believed this initiative will further enhance its premium appeal and increase its market share. Management has also indicated strong hotel booking figures ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Furthermore, the bank assumes a dividend payout ratio of 50% for MGM CHINA this year, consistent with the company's updated dividend policy. It is estimated that this will provide an industry-leading dividend yield of over 5%.