Property stocks led gains in Hong Kong markets. As of press time, C&D INTL GROUP (01908) rose 4.22% to HK$18.53; CHINA RES LAND (01109) gained 3.51% to HK$33.5; LONGFOR GROUP (00960) increased 3.03% to HK$10.88; and SEAZEN (01030) climbed 2.6% to HK$2.76.

On the policy front, Beijing recently unveiled new property market measures, clearly stating that qualified families are no longer restricted in the number of properties they can purchase outside Beijing's Fifth Ring Road. The city also enhanced housing provident fund support in terms of housing unit recognition, loan amounts, and withdrawal policies.

Orient Securities noted that Beijing's latest property policies exceeded expectations in timing, carrying significant signal value and raising expectations for policy relaxation in Shenzhen and Shanghai's purchase restriction policies. Guosen Securities pointed out that given the current weakening property fundamentals and continued housing price declines, property stocks are unlikely to see trending rallies. However, Beijing's new policies may mark the beginning of a new round of relaxation, suggesting that a trading window for property stocks may be opening.

Overall, housing price trends fundamentally determine medium-term excess returns for property stocks. Since 2022, property stocks' excess returns have experienced eight notable impulses, mostly driven by policy announcements, with more novel policy statements generating stronger reactions. The April and July Central Politburo meetings downplayed real estate, but if housing prices continue declining, new policy statements can be expected.