On Wednesday, April 15, during early Asian trading, spot gold was trading near $4,830 per ounce. Gold prices surged over 2% on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and market hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations. Former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that talks aimed at ending the Iran conflict could restart within the next two days in Pakistan. On Tuesday, April 14, gold showed an overall oscillating upward trend: after opening, it climbed steadily, encountering resistance near $4,796 before the European session and pulling back. During the European session, it quickly tested support around $4,752 before resuming its upward momentum. The U.S. session continued the strong rebound, with prices rising to near $4,846 before the close. The daily chart eventually closed with a bullish candlestick, indicating a clear stabilization and recovery pattern.

Fundamental Factors: The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.10 on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, with a cumulative drop of over 2%. A weaker dollar directly enhances the appeal of dollar-denominated gold for holders of other currencies, serving as a key driver for the rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, international oil prices also experienced sharp corrections: Brent crude futures fell 2.6% to settle at $92.46 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures plunged 6.1% to $92.08 per barrel. Both contracts continued to decline in early trading today, primarily due to market expectations that Iran, the U.S., and Israel may restart negotiations to end the conflict that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitical Developments: In a media interview on Tuesday, former U.S. President Donald Trump explicitly stated that negotiations aimed at ending the Iran conflict could resume within the next two days in Pakistan. According to reports, two U.S. government officials indicated that the Trump administration would allow a 30-day sanctions waiver on Iranian maritime oil exports to expire later this week, as the U.S. currently enforces a blockade on shipments from Iranian ports. Sources revealed that Iran is considering a temporary suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid provoking a potential U.S. blockade and to prevent jeopardizing new peace talks.

Technical Analysis: From the perspective of the daily gold chart, the two consecutive bullish candlesticks this week were not driven by technical factors but entirely by fundamental developments—specifically, market expectations for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations and an easing of tensions. Typically, a reduction in safe-haven demand would negatively impact gold prices. However, the market has behaved contrary to expectations, with declines in the dollar and oil prices driving funds toward gold as a safe-haven asset, resulting in this unconventional rally. While this upward move is technically difficult to interpret, the fact that prices have passively returned above $4,800 suggests the possibility of further gains. As long as U.S.-Iran negotiations remain ongoing and no outcome is reached, market sentiment could sustain gold's elevated levels, potentially testing the upper boundary of the daily chart's range, the short-term trendline, and the 60-day moving average around $4,920–$4,950.

Examining the one-hour gold chart, the breakthrough above the $4,800 resistance level during the U.S. session and the test of the previous minor high near $4,850 have invalidated the emerging "head and shoulders" pattern on the hourly chart. However, indicators on the hourly chart remain elevated, showing signs of overbought conditions and bearish divergence. Therefore, it is crucial not to blindly follow the current uptrend, as price action is not following conventional technical patterns. Subsequent movements will likely remain heavily influenced by the dollar index, which is currently at a critical juncture, adding uncertainty and risk to short-term outlooks.

For the day, initial resistance is observed near $4,850. If U.S.-Iran negotiations resume, gold may maintain its strength. A break above $4,850 could open the door for a test of the $4,920–$4,950 resistance zone. On the downside, key support to watch lies in the $4,810–$4,800 range.

Trading Recommendation: Consider short-term trades within the approximate range of $4,920/$4,950—$4,850—$4,800, focusing on both buying on dips and selling on rallies. These should be limited to ultra-short-term positions, executed with very light positions and strict stop-loss orders to guard against volatile market sentiment driven by unpredictable news developments.