US Pending Home Sales See Surprising Modest Gain in August, Yet High Mortgage Rates Continue to Dampen Market Activity

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Pending home sales in the United States experienced a slight recovery in August, though the overall market remains sluggish as persistently high mortgage rates continue to weigh on buyer demand. Data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed the pending home sales index edged up 0.3% to 71.2 last month, marking the first increase since May. This unexpected uptick came in contrast to economists' forecasts, who had anticipated a 0.1% decline in the index.

"Despite the rise in mortgage rates, buyers steadily signed contracts in August," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted in the report. "However, the housing market remains subdued, with contract activity still lagging behind year-ago levels." On an annualized basis, pending home sales were down nearly 5% compared to August of the previous year.

The latest figures suggest that pent-up housing demand persists, with some prospective buyers who had previously delayed purchases in anticipation of lower mortgage rates now choosing to move forward. Nevertheless, there are few indications pointing to a genuine market recovery. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage rates have continued their upward trajectory since the onset of the conflict with Iran, approaching 7% in the week ending September 11, with the potential for further increases on the horizon.

Home loan costs are closely correlated with yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which surged to their highest levels in nearly two decades earlier this week. The pending home sales index serves as a leading indicator for existing home sales, as properties typically spend one to two months under contract before the transactions are finalized.

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