Guosen Securities has released a research report estimating that global new-type energy storage installations will reach 433GWh in 2026, up 38% year on year, and climb to 1,186GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 31% from 2025 to 2030.

According to the report, China's energy storage battery sales totaled 595.4GWh from January to September, surging 112% year on year, while exports reached 103.2GWh, up 46% year on year.

The brokerage recommends paying attention to leading utility-scale storage companies, as well as residential storage firms with strong overseas product research and development iteration capabilities and leading channel layouts.

Overseas Utility-Scale Storage: US and Europe Resonate with Emerging Markets, Residential Storage Blooms Across the Globe

The report estimates that global new-type energy storage installations will hit 433GWh in 2026, up 38% year on year, and reach 1,186GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of about 31% from 2025 to 2030, with Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific excluding China growing the fastest.

Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 936GWh in 2026, up 70% year on year, corresponding to an energy storage system market output value of approximately 752.3 billion yuan.

Global residential storage is expected to continue growing overall in 2027, with the European region focusing on inventory digestion and new demand brought by dynamic electricity pricing, while emerging markets in Asia and Africa continue to develop.

From 2028 to 2030, the growth drivers for residential energy storage systems will gradually shift toward retrofitting existing solar installations, electric vehicles and home energy management, and virtual power plants.

Britain and emerging markets still have room for penetration rate improvement, and Brazil is also worth close tracking.

Product research and development, price competition, and local service capabilities will determine the competitive landscape of regional markets.

China's energy storage battery sales reached 595.4GWh from January to September, up 112% year on year, with exports at 103.2GWh, up 46% year on year.

Domestic Utility-Scale Storage: Tenders Lead Installations, Capacity Electricity Pricing Opens Profit Space for Independent Storage

2026 marks the first year for the implementation of the capacity electricity pricing mechanism for independent energy storage, with Document No. 114 including grid-side independent new-type energy storage in the capacity electricity pricing system at the national level for the first time.

From January to September, domestic energy storage system and equipment-inclusive EPC tenders, including centralized procurement, totaled 451.9GWh, up 48% year on year, while the figure excluding centralized procurement stood at 391.5GWh, up 82% year on year.

On the installation side, affected by the high base from two rounds of rush installations in May and December 2025, new installations from January to September reached 102.3GWh, up only 6% year on year.

The gap between tenders and installations suggests that grid-connected scale is expected to continue growing in 2027.

Lithium Carbonate Prices Return, Industry Chain Profitability Recovers

Lithium carbonate has fallen about 53% from its May 2026 high to 93,600 yuan per ton, easing cost-side pressure and allowing profit margins in the system and cell segments to recover.

Risks include: domestic capacity electricity pricing implementation falling short of expectations, overseas trade barriers such as US tariffs and FEOC provisions, large fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices, subsidy policy rollback for residential storage, and intensifying industry competition.