As Western AI capital expenditure enters the Juglar cycle (a period of cyclical prosperity driven by equipment upgrades), the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks has ballooned to $68 trillion, with the AI sector accounting for nearly half ($30 trillion). The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants alone contribute 22% of this, with NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple each surpassing $4 trillion in market cap—equivalent to the world's third, fourth, and fifth-largest economies.

Skepticism about the AI bubble is intensifying alongside soaring valuations. The logic chain is already in place, awaiting only a trigger to unleash high volatility.

The U.S. faces a critical challenge: its economic model now hinges on AI and robotics to generate massive output, transforming work into an optional activity and enabling universal high income—rather than average income. However, this vision starkly contrasts with the motives of current investors and politicians.

A deeper conflict may stem from the G2 rivalry narrative.

With AI as the sole growth engine, its fragility becomes glaring. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently revealed a hidden crisis: a surplus of NVIDIA GPUs sits idle, not due to excess computing power but because of constraints in electricity and physical data center space.

This "warm node" shortage highlights a fundamental bottleneck—data centers lack sufficient power and cooling capacity for optimal GPU deployment. Even cutting-edge chips risk becoming "unplugged scrap metal" without the right infrastructure.

Nadella signaled reluctance to overcommit to any single generation of NVIDIA GPUs, underscoring the tension between rapid tech iteration and resource efficiency. Accelerated innovation is shrinking GPU value retention cycles.

If NVIDIA's breakneck R&D loses sync with Eastern AI expansion, profit growth could stall, triggering macroeconomic repercussions from a potential market cap collapse. Should the world's third-largest tech economy enter high volatility, the fallout would be systemic.

The only viable path forward? Deep integration with Eastern tech ecosystems, including lifting high-end chip export restrictions. But can NVIDIA sacrifice margins? Will politicians abandon containment strategies? Unlikely.

A market reset may require a "physical detonation" to establish new equilibrium.

Meanwhile, opaque financing risks loom. A significant portion of tech debt originates from private credit—off-balance-sheet and ring-fenced from core operations. The FT warns that AI's growing reliance on leveraged, recursive debt structures could expose banks and shadow lenders to cascading defaults if issuer creditworthiness deteriorates.

While 2D/3D analyses suggest the bubble persists, higher-dimensional tensions await their trigger. The fuse is lit—only the spark remains unknown.