International crude oil prices have climbed to elevated levels and continue to show strong momentum, leading to a notable increase in the crude oil change rate. This suggests that domestic refined oil retail price limits are likely to experience a substantial upward adjustment effective March 23 at 24:00.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with no clear signs of easing, have intensified market concerns over potential reductions in crude oil supply. These factors are supporting international crude oil prices, keeping them firm within a high range. As a result, during the current pricing cycle (from March 9 at 24:00 to March 23 at 24:00), the average international crude oil price has risen significantly compared to the previous period. The crude oil change rate began the cycle at a high positive value and has maintained an upward trend.

Calculations indicate that as of the market close on March 19, the reference crude oil change rate stood at 45.21%. This corresponds to an estimated increase in domestic refined oil retail prices of approximately 2,000 yuan per ton. With one working day remaining until the price adjustment window opens, the crude oil change rate is expected to continue rising. The final adjustment is projected to be around 2,200 yuan per ton. When converted to a per-liter basis, this translates to increases of 1.73 yuan for 92# gasoline, 1.83 yuan for 95# gasoline, and 1.87 yuan for 0# diesel.

If the retail price limit is adjusted by this magnitude, the price of 92# gasoline nationwide would enter the "9-yuan era." For a private car owner refueling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline, the additional cost would be about 86.5 yuan.

For example, considering a private vehicle traveling 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the additional fuel cost per vehicle before the next pricing window (April 7, 2026, at 24:00) would be approximately 138 yuan. For the logistics sector, a heavy-duty truck traveling 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers would see an increase in fuel costs of about 3,553 yuan per vehicle during the same period.

In the short term, influenced by geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices are expected to remain high. Based on current crude oil prices, the next pricing cycle is anticipated to start with a positive change rate, although the magnitude of the increase is projected to be narrower. The initial adjustment on the first day is estimated to be around 450 yuan per ton. The next price adjustment window is scheduled for April 7, 2026.