Since 2025, Hong Kong's pharmaceutical market has demonstrated structural outperformance, with the innovative drug sector becoming a focal point for capital allocation due to fundamental inflection points toward profitability and industry upgrades through overseas expansion. Research data shows that 149 listed pharmaceutical companies in Hong Kong achieved a 29.7% year-over-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with 36 innovative drug companies generating RMB 28.5 billion in revenue (up 15.8% YoY) and RMB 1.8 billion in net profit, marking the industry's official entry into a new "profit-driven" cycle. Market consensus has emerged around focusing on undervalued, scarce targets that have not been fully priced.
**Multiple Institutions Bullish on Innovative Drug Prospects, Capital Focuses on "High Value-for-Money" Targets**
In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong's innovative drug sector completed a crucial transition from the "R&D investment phase" to the "commercialization harvest phase." This transformation stems from the continuous validation of commercialization capabilities among major innovative drug companies. Companies represented by BeiGene and Innovent Biologics have gradually formed positive cycles of "R&D-profitability-reinvestment" through global promotion of core products and overseas licensing, driving steady revenue growth and profit turnaround across the sector.
Currently, the innovative drug sector exhibits characteristics of "high certainty + high elasticity" growth, with sustained sector rotation enhancement. Capital flows have shown two major characteristics: first, leading innovative drug companies with stable R&D pipelines, mature commercialization systems, and global layouts have achieved "alpha performance" through performance certainty and premium valuation; second, companies with commercialized core products have stock prices correlated with sales data and market share expansion, with valuations focusing on the balance between "performance realization + growth expectations."
To date, these two types of targets have attracted significant capital allocation, with valuations gradually returning to reasonable ranges. The current P/E ratios (TTM) for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index and Hang Seng Healthcare Index are 36.19x and 35.96x respectively, positioned at the 24.64% and 26.15% percentiles over the past five years, significantly lower than the over 50x valuation levels of A-share and US biotech indices, demonstrating clear advantages.
Research indicates that the main upward trend for A-share and Hong Kong pharmaceutical sectors is expected to continue in the medium to long term, recommending focus on innovation-driven, internationalization, autonomous control, and out-of-hospital marketing model reform areas, particularly sector leaders with strong performance realization capabilities and high domestic demand certainty.
**VISEN PHARMA-B: Undervalued Innovative Drug Rare Target with Valuation Recovery and Growth Potential**
The market's attention to VISEN PHARMA-B stems from its potential to establish a differentiated position in the multi-billion RMB growth hormone market through core products, innovative pipeline, and forward-looking positioning.
VISEN PHARMA-B is committed to providing first-in-class (FIC) or best-in-class (BIC) endocrine disease products and treatment solutions. The company currently has three products, with its core product being lonapegsomatropin (TransCon hGH), a long-acting growth hormone product set for commercialization in China. Developed using major shareholder Ascendis Pharma's patented TransCon prodrug technology, this product has been clinically proven superior to daily growth hormone formulations, with clear "best-in-class" attributes.
Public information shows lonapegsomatropin is expected to become the third long-acting growth hormone listed domestically. Fundamentally, it releases recombinant growth hormone identical to endogenous growth hormone, exerting direct and indirect effects by stimulating cartilage cells and liver. With solid clinical data and once-weekly dosing frequency significantly improving patient compliance, it is positioned to capture a substantial domestic market share.
The commercialization capability of lonapegsomatropin has been fully validated overseas: approved by the US FDA and EU EMA in 2021 and 2022 respectively (trade name Skytrofa), it became the leading brand in the US growth hormone market by Q4 2023, with overseas sales reaching EUR 202 million in 2024. In July 2025, the FDA further approved its adult GHD indication, completing coverage for both "children + adults," adding momentum for sales growth.
Domestically, the BLA for lonapegsomatropin's pediatric GHD indication was accepted by NMPA in March 2024, with approval expected within 2025 based on historical review cycles. According to Frost & Sullivan projections, China's long-acting growth hormone market will reach RMB 21.1 billion by 2030, with long-acting formulations becoming mainstream products. Conservative estimates suggest that capturing 15%-20% of the domestic long-acting growth hormone market through technological advantages could contribute billions in revenue from this product alone, establishing core performance support.
As VISEN's first commercialized product post-listing, lonapegsomatropin's landing progress directly determines the company's value realization timeline. The company has constructed an efficient commercialization system through strategic cooperation: on the channel side, VISEN signed a strategic cooperation agreement with domestic growth hormone leader AnKe Bio in July, authorizing exclusive promotion in specific domestic regions; on the production side, VISEN is conducting localized production technology transfer with WuXi Biologics to ensure stable product supply and establish a foundation for subsequent volume growth.
Beyond its core product, VISEN's pipeline reserves further strengthen long-term growth logic, forming a "core product foundation + potential pipeline expansion" structure. Palopegteriparatide for treating hypoparathyroidism has completed domestic Phase III trials and is advancing NMPA priority review communications. Navepegfaratide for achondroplasia has completed domestic Phase II trials with excellent data and is communicating priority review under orphan drug qualification.
**Investment Outlook: Potential for "Davis Double Play"**
From current positioning, the core of innovative drug company valuation reconstruction lies in "product realization capability." VISEN's advantage of having its core product entering commercialization phase is particularly prominent under current "profit-driven" sector logic. The company's core product addresses unmet clinical needs with characteristics of "clear competitive landscape + broad market space." Once commercialization is completed, it will rapidly enter the revenue realization phase, becoming a "catch-up core" in sector rotation.
Recent stock price pressure from "unlock period" sentiment represents temporary disruption. From industry patterns and company fundamentals perspective, this impact is a phase-specific disturbance. Pre-IPO shareholders and cornerstone investors are internationally renowned long-term funds and strategic investors focused on long-term development value, which will enhance market confidence and stabilize stock prices to some extent.
With the approaching commercialization milestone of the core product, performance certainty is significantly higher than companies still in early R&D stages. Referencing valuation paths of RongChang Bio (stock price increased over 5x after core product listing) and Akeso (dual-antibody products driving market cap breakthrough of RMB 120 billion), VISEN has significantly increased chip realization probability, making long-term capital reluctant to exit easily. Post-unlock selling pressure is expected to be quickly absorbed, with the unlock period likely to achieve "smooth transition," positioning VISEN for a "Davis double play" of performance and valuation post-product landing.
From a scarcity perspective, targets in Hong Kong's innovative drug sector simultaneously possessing "core product nearing commercialization + valuation below sector average + sufficient cash reserves" are limited. VISEN avoids early-stage biotech "R&D failure risk" while not being assigned mature pharmaceutical company high valuations, positioning it in a "value depression." Under the backdrop of institutional capital continuously increasing allocation to innovative drug sectors, its scarcity will be gradually re-evaluated by the market, warranting long-term investor attention.