A consumer was seen shopping at a grocery store in Miami on March 11. Perishable food items are likely to be among the first consumer goods to experience price increases.

Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of the world's oil supply. However, the impact extends far beyond oil.

In recent weeks, oil and gasoline have dominated headlines for a clear reason: fuel prices have surged, leading to price shocks at gas stations—an unavoidable expense for many commuters and drivers. At the same time, nearly all goods purchased in stores are transported by truck, ship, or plane, all of which rely on diesel fuel. Rising oil prices have already driven diesel costs significantly higher.

But the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is also restricting the shipment of other goods. These items could increase costs for consumers and businesses, affecting areas well beyond the gas pump and creating a dual inflationary shock.

Food Among the first consumer goods to rise in price will be food, particularly perishable items such as dairy products, fruits, vegetables, fish, and meat. The extent of the increase is not yet clear, but consumers may already be noticing the effects.

Food prices are likely to climb further in the coming weeks and months due to another key cost factor: fertilizer.

The Middle East is a major supplier of urea, a crystalline nitrogen fertilizer used in the vast majority of fertilizers worldwide. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, approximately 35% of the world's urea and over 20% of global fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This could soon impact U.S. farmers, and the timing is particularly problematic as the planting season approaches.

Helium More than a quarter of the world's helium is produced in Qatar and shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

In recent years, soaring demand for AI chips has already led to a global helium shortage. Helium is used to cool equipment in chip manufacturing. This is why some party supply stores have run out of helium or are charging exorbitant prices for inflating balloons.

Some chips are already in short supply and are expected to cause price increases for smartphones and computers later this year. If the industry faces further helium shortages, the problem will worsen.

Helium is also critical in the medical field, where it is used to cool MRI machines, as noted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. While the industry has responded by recycling helium and seeking alternative sources, the cost of medical scans may ultimately rise.

Aluminum Aluminum prices, already elevated due to tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, have recently reached a four-year high following the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Approximately 20% of the world's primary aluminum comes from the Middle East. Aluminum is widely used in construction materials, which could further increase already high housing construction costs.

Natural Gas U.S. natural gas prices have fallen significantly from winter peaks but remain higher than usual. Natural gas is the primary source of electricity generation in the United States.

However, in Europe and Asia, natural gas prices have surged, doubling since the outbreak of the conflict. This could drive up global natural gas prices and increase demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas, keeping domestic prices elevated.

Plastics and Chemicals Crude oil byproducts are key raw materials for plastics, resins, polymers, and petrochemicals, many of which are produced and shipped primarily from the Middle East.

For example, much of Asia's naphtha—a chemical feedstock used in paints and cleaners—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. Resins and polymers used in packaging also largely originate from the region.

The conflict has prompted other production regions, such as Latin America, to increase output, but they have also raised prices in response to growing demand, according to S&P Global.

Pharmaceuticals India, known as the global capital of generic drugs, is responsible for one-fifth of the world's drug production and two-thirds of vaccine manufacturing, according to Boeing's World Air Cargo Forecast.

However, the conflict with Iran has also disrupted key air routes, particularly those to Europe. The challenge is that some medications require rapid transport, and the blockade could lead to increased drug costs.