Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Global Fund Allocation to Chinese Stocks Rebounds to Neutral Level

Deep News
2025/11/05

**Investment Highlights for the Period:**

**October Global Asset Price Review:** In October, Japan and South Korea finalized investment agreements with the U.S., with details disclosed. South Korea pledged $350 billion in investments to the U.S., while the U.S. maintained a 15% comprehensive tariff rate and granted South Korea most-favored-nation status in pharmaceutical tariffs. For Japan, the U.S. imposed a uniform 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles. In exchange, Japan committed to investing $550 billion in 21 U.S. strategic projects, covering energy, AI, and critical minerals. These agreements solidified U.S. alliances and strengthened global risk appetite, driving Japanese and South Korean equities to lead global gains. 1) **Equities:** In USD terms, South Korean and Japanese stocks surged 19.1% and 12.2%, respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 8.53%. 2) **Fixed Income:** Despite a Fed rate cut, Chair Powell’s hawkish inflation outlook kept the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield stable, though the dollar index rose 2.01% to 99.73, nearing benchmark levels. 3) **Commodities:** Precious metals rose (COMEX gold +2.55%), while crude oil dipped 0.35%.

**Global Asset Flows (as of October 29, 2025):** - **Money Markets:** Global inflows slowed to $129 billion in October from $155 billion in September. - **Equities:** Developed markets saw $84 billion inflows (vs. $95 billion in September), while emerging markets attracted $22 billion (vs. $26 billion). U.S. equity funds led with $59.51 billion inflows, followed by China ($18.06 billion) and broader EM ($24.16 billion). - **Fixed Income:** U.S. bond funds dominated with $58.49 billion inflows. China’s fixed-income funds saw a 1.8% relative inflow, outpacing peers.

**Sector Flows:** - **U.S. Equities:** Tech, healthcare, and industrials attracted strong inflows, while staples, energy, and real estate saw outflows. - **China-Focused Funds:** Tech, financials, and materials led inflows, with utilities shifting from outflows to inflows.

**Country Allocation Trends (September 2025):** Global funds marginally increased allocations to U.S. (+0.1ppt to 61.6%) and Chinese (+0.1ppt to 40th percentile) equities. Emerging markets raised China’s weight by 0.6ppt (68th percentile), surpassing historical averages. Taiwan (97.6th percentile) and South Korea (+0.3ppt) saw gains, while India’s allocation declined.

**Risks:** Short-term price volatility may not reflect long-term trends; deeper-than-expected recessions in the West or U.S. policy shifts under Trump could disrupt markets.

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