The lithium battery sector led market gains today. As of press time, CALB (03931) surged 8.59% to HK$29.06; CATL (03750) rose 4.9% to HK$454; GANFENGLITHIUM (01772) gained 3.79% to HK$35.06; and TIANQI LITHIUM (09696) climbed 3.57% to HK$41.22.

On the news front, Morgan Stanley released a report on September 11th stating that CATL's leading position will continue as the company achieves breakthroughs in European markets while smaller competitors face profitability challenges in the crucial energy storage sector. The report noted that the currently popular solid-state battery technology is viewed as short-term hype, and CATL's valuation has become significantly attractive among peers, making it the "cheapest in the industry."

CITIC Securities believes that the lithium battery sector has already realized the logic of exceeding market demand expectations for 2025, and the current core contradiction has shifted to whether demand expectations for 2026 can be further revised upward beyond the 20% growth rate baseline. The firm suggests monitoring three key signals: first, Q4 energy storage tender situations, which will reflect 2026 installation data; second, battery company tenders at the end of November corresponding to 2026 procurement expectations - although some battery companies have already provided 2026 guidance significantly exceeding market expectations, credibility remains questioned, and subsequent price-based volume negotiations will be more credible; third, the continuation of 2026 automotive trade-in policies and lithium battery production scheduling information.

While there are currently significant expectation gaps, energy storage outperformance driven by economic factors may accelerate next year. With increased attention, a second wave of market movement could emerge at any time.