Weibo will release its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 18 (pre-market). According to Tiger International APP data forecasts, Weibo's Q3 total revenue is expected to be about $442 million, a decrease of 1.26% year-on-year. Earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to be $0.42, down 11.33% year-on-year.
Last Quarter Review
In Q2 2025, Weibo achieved a total revenue of $445 million, up 1.58% year-on-year; a gross profit margin of 76.74%; net income attributable to the parent company was $126 million, with a net profit margin of 28.26%; and adjusted EPS was $0.54, up 12.5% year-on-year. This performance was mainly due to improved cost efficiency and product mix optimization, further enhancing Weibo's operational quality.
In terms of business segments, advertising and marketing revenue was $383 million, accounting for 86% of total revenue, continuing to be Weibo's main growth driver. Value-added service revenue was about $61 million, remaining stable, primarily supporting user activity and ecosystem stability.
This Quarter’s Highlights
The Pace of Advertising Demand Recovery
With the arrival of the traditional peak season and the addition of e-commerce promotion points, the market expects an increase in the willingness to invest in brand and performance advertising. However, the overall macro environment remains cautious, and it is expected that the advertising budget recovery will show a gradual warming. Therefore, the market generally expects Weibo's Q3 revenue to decline year-on-year, with the recovery of the advertising business still incomplete.
From a product perspective, Weibo's ability to supply information flow ads, video content, and topic marketing resources will directly impact ad loading rates and unit price elasticity. If quality content effectively boosts user dwell time and engagement, the click-through and conversion rates will likely improve, supporting performance advertising business.
In terms of competition, the diversion of advertising budgets by short video and content community platforms continues. Weibo's differentiated advantage in hot topic distribution and celebrity/KOL ecosystems will be crucial for attracting brand budgets back. However, the pace of this return will still depend on the recovery of demand.
Cost Structure and Profit Resilience
Last quarter, Weibo showed strong profit flexibility through cost and expense structure optimization. If revenue pressures continue but the gross profit margin remains high this quarter, Weibo's profit margin may continue to demonstrate resilience. Especially the efficiency improvement of infrastructure costs such as servers and bandwidth, and technological advances in content moderation and community governance, will help maintain high gross profit margins while controlling the growth of period expenses.
Weibo may also increase marketing investments in major event marketing and the improvement of delivery efficiency, further consolidating profit resilience. However, if competitors increase subsidies and marketing efforts, expenditures may rise temporarily.
Value-added Services and Product Structure Optimization
Although value-added services revenue accounts for a small proportion of the overall revenue, it plays a vital role in enhancing user activity and optimizing the content ecosystem. If it can be deeply linked with advertising products, Weibo's combination of member benefits and exposure resources is expected to improve client ROI and ad renewal rates.
Furthermore, Weibo is continuously improving its community e-commerce and localized traffic guidance capabilities and trying to combine these with hot topic operations. This may bring new increments to advertising effectiveness, especially when conversion chains and merchant retention data are effectively optimized.
Institutional Views
Recent analysts have maintained a cautious attitude towards Weibo's target price, focusing on the recovery of advertising demand and profit resilience. Some institutions believe that in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty, Weibo's cost efficiency and cash flow quality will be critical; while others point out that the pressure from short video platform competition and the diversion of advertising budgets may challenge Weibo’s future performance. Overall, the market’s focus is on whether Weibo’s Q3 revenue can confirm signs of an inflection point and the actualization of EBIT and EPS.
Goldman Sachs expects Weibo's Q3 advertising business to face significant pressure, especially amid weak demand in the fast-moving consumer goods, mobile phone, and gaming industries, but e-commerce and new energy vehicle advertisements are expected to maintain growth. Overall, investors remain cautiously optimistic about Weibo's AI development, advertising monetization potential, and product matrix upgrades.
Conclusion
Faced with the complex situation of advertising demand recovery, Weibo continues to lay a solid foundation for its future commercialization path through ongoing optimization of product structure, cost efficiency, and content ecosystem layout. Despite the macroeconomic uncertainty, the market remains focused on the recovery trajectory of Weibo's advertising business and its profit resilience. How Weibo navigates this period of change will be key to determining its stock price trend.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI data, and is for reference only.