Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that many institutions have interpreted Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent speeches as dovish signals. Against the backdrop of interest rate cut expectations, dollar-denominated crude oil is attracting more buyers, which is expected to provide support for medium-term crude oil demand. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire issue has not yielded substantial results, and subsequent attention needs to be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia on overall supply and demand. Additionally, the latest EIA weekly report shows that U.S. crude oil inventories declined more than market expectations. Overall, short-term oil price support is relatively strong, with medium-term focus on OPEC production increase impacts and downstream demand conditions after the peak season. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows:
Powell's Speech Releases Dovish Signals On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke at the annual economic symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hinting that despite current upside inflation risks, the Fed may still cut interest rates in the coming months. According to his statement, the Fed's monetary policy stance may need adjustment. After the speech, many institutions interpreted Powell's remarks as dovish signals. Against the backdrop of interest rate cut expectations, dollar-denominated crude oil is attracting more buyers, which is expected to provide support for medium-term crude oil demand.
Focus on Geopolitical Factor Disruptions On August 21, after the U.S.-Russia talks concluded, the overall outcome aligned with market expectations, with the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire issue not producing substantial results. Subsequent attention needs to be paid to the impact of sanctioned Russian oil on overall supply and demand, as well as substantial changes in India's energy imports from Russia. Currently, the overall supply-demand balance appears limited, with marginal factors being the primary drivers.
Crude Oil Inventories Decline Beyond Expectations On the fundamental side, the latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels, a decline exceeding market expectations and representing the largest weekly drop since June. The inventory decline was driven by two main factors: first, strong refinery utilization rates, which have now reached the highest levels for this time of year since 2019; second, a recovery in crude oil exports, rising to highs since April with daily export volumes reaching 4.38 million barrels.
Investment Recommendations: According to Bloomberg reports, China is expected to gradually introduce multiple "anti-involution" policies including the clearing of outdated capacity and strict control of capacity supply. Later, as the Politburo meeting convenes, downstream demand is also expected to recover, accelerating industry price differential repairs. ①Recommend filament industry leaders with increasing industry concentration, upcoming downstream peak season restocking demand, and slowing production expansion pace: Xinfengming (603225.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH); ②Recommend refining and chemical leaders benefiting from the "anti-involution" context: Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ); ③From a medium to long-term perspective, recommend upstream undervalued high-dividend targets CNOOC (00883), PETROCHINA (00857), and recommend KUNLUN ENERGY (00135) with stable cash flows.
Risk Warning: Global economic recession exceeding expectations, geopolitical events exceeding expectations, strategic reserve releases exceeding expectations.