Deutsche Bank stated that even in a downside scenario, the long-term impact on Oracle's earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow would be limited. Oracle staged a strong rebound on Wednesday after Deutsche Bank and HSBC Holdings PLC voiced their support for the stock, which had previously plunged due to market concerns over the costs and uncertainties of its AI infrastructure strategy.
Analysts from both institutions noted that the recent sell-off was an overreaction, considering Oracle's earnings outlook and its ability to manage long-term commitments.
Brad Zelnick of Deutsche Bank suggested that bearish views "actually...contain positives" when aligned with Oracle's long-term financial targets. He estimated that even if Oracle gains no additional revenue from its partnership with OpenAI, the impact on management's fiscal 2030 goals would remain manageable—EPS would decrease by approximately $4 to $17, and free cash flow would drop to around $31 billion. The bank noted that, at current share prices, the market has barely priced in any premium for Oracle's OpenAI collaboration.
Deutsche Bank also addressed investor concerns over Oracle's data center lease obligations, which have raised questions about future cost pressures. While acknowledging the scale of these commitments, analysts emphasized that Oracle retains flexibility in lease management. They projected that even if the company bears about half of the related costs, it could still sustain EPS near $15 and free cash flow at approximately $26 billion.