Key shipping data from analytics firm Kpler shows that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz hit a new low on Saturday.

Only five ships crossed the strait on Saturday, compared to 31 vessels during the same period last weekend. The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran expires today, with negotiations stalled.

On August 10, 2026, multiple vessels were anchored off Iran's Bandar Abbas port in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Supreme National Security Council recently issued a statement declaring that the key waterway will not reopen until the US corrects its behavior, demanding that Washington halt military actions against Iran and compensate for war damages, among other conditions.

As the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement expires on Monday, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt all weekend, with no formal negotiations underway and no signs of a new deal emerging. Reuters reported, citing Kpler data, that only five cargo ships transited the global oil chokepoint on Saturday, with no vessels recorded crossing on Sunday. In comparison, 31 ships traversed the strait last weekend.

Analyzing Kpler's monitoring data: shipping volumes last week had already hit a three-month low, with the five-day moving average of vessels on Tuesday standing at just 13, the lowest level since May 12. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, overall transit through the strait has declined by 90%.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil shipments, with an average of roughly 130 vessels passing through daily during peacetime. HSBC shipping expert Palash Jain said on Monday morning's "European Morning Markets" program that investors should recognize that chaos is now the norm in the shipping industry and incorporate this scenario into their baseline expectations.

Oil prices edged lower on Monday: international benchmark Brent crude futures fell 0.15% to $88.45 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.74% to $81.79 per barrel.

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement expires on Monday, with talks between the two sides at an impasse. Iran's Shahra News on Saturday quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi as saying that no valid ceasefire agreement exists between the two sides. Araghchi stated, "There are currently no negotiations between the US and us... Qatar and Pakistan are only conveying messages and maintaining contact between the two sides; this does not constitute negotiations."

US President Donald Trump claimed last week, "I will soon announce that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to US territory." However, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi struck a firm tone on the X platform on Friday, stating that the Strait of Hormuz will forever belong to Iran, and that only Iran has the authority to control its opening and closing.