Tomorrow's market leaves us with roughly half an hour to react, a moment that will determine winners and losers. Following the usual approach, I'll jump straight to the conclusion. If the earlier parts sound complex, just listen to the final 30 seconds.

First, at the index level, the future range is the distance from the Shenzhen Component's 5-day moving average to the June 11 resistance level. However, the key lies in sector selection. We can break this down into three directions, and then explain a seesaw relationship in detail. First, there's the dividend vs. the index. If you're bullish, choose the index and common stocks; if bearish, choose dividend stocks. Typical representatives are banks (core stocks), followed by coal. A bull market in the index is their bear market, and vice versa. Second, large-cap tech vs. small-cap stocks or the CSI 2000. They are also opposites, but with a time lag. They compete for funds. For example, when rising, they rise together, like a marathon, but eventually small-cap stocks will fall behind, drop first, and the rally ends when the strongest stocks can't rise further. Conversely, when falling, small-cap stocks drop first and also rebound first. During the rebound, tech stocks often rise while small-cap stocks rest, and vice versa, when tech rests, small-cap stocks get their turn.

So, where are we now? Small-cap stocks rebounded first, reached their 60-day moving average, then consolidated for three days, waiting for a tech rebound. Today, tech stocks began to pull back to their 20-day moving average, while small-cap stocks continued their rebound—a staggered schedule. Meanwhile, dividend stocks, which were holding at their 20-day moving average, bounced back to their 5-day line. This trend is exactly opposite to tech: one is bouncing back to the 5-day line, the other is pulling back to it. Following the ongoing narrative, our thinking on Friday was that today, only small-cap stocks had an offensive opportunity; other stocks (core stocks) had no chance. Following this sequence, small-cap stocks are the rebound pioneers. The next step will be for tech stocks to see if they can keep up. Here are the key points for the next 30 seconds.

Response strategies are straightforward, with two conclusions. First, at the index level, the intraday pullback to the 5-day moving average was completed, with a tail-end rally in the final hour. This is essentially equivalent to a tech pullback, while small-cap stocks continue to climb. Second, different directions require different approaches. For small-cap stocks, if the 5-day moving average is not broken, you can wait. For tech stocks, broadly speaking, it's a secondary entry opportunity when they pull back to the 5-day or 20-day moving average, with a 3% stop-loss. In the first half hour tomorrow, compare banks (core stocks). If banks are in the red, and tech stocks don't break the 5-day line on a pullback, hold or slightly increase positions; otherwise, exit.

The 30-second summary ends here. For veteran traders, here's a supplementary explanation. Within tech stocks, there is significant divergence, divided into three types. The first type is the largest mega-cap stocks, which are not favored, as many haven't held their 20-day moving average, represented by the Yi Zhong Tian Han Wang (a colloquial reference to a group of major tech stocks). The second type represents about 80% of stocks, which today are mostly holding at their 20-day and 5-day moving averages. These are mid-cap stocks with a market cap of 10 to 50 billion yuan. They can continue to rebound at most, but hitting new highs is unlikely, represented by fiber optics, memory chips, and some electronic fabrics. The third type is a very small minority of stocks that stabilized a week before the broader tech sector, mainly upstream materials, represented by electronic specialty gases and MLCCs. These stocks have a slight chance of determining tech's final peak.

Beyond these three camps, there's a special category whose bull trend has little to do with the index: cyclical stocks, represented by chemicals (core stocks) and pork. For them, the index's bull or bear market is almost irrelevant; they only follow their own cyclical rotations. Therefore, your expectations vary by direction. For example, with dividend stocks, you'd hope the index falls. For small-cap stocks, you'd hope the index stays flat, but mega-cap tech stocks don't rise. For tech stocks, you'd definitely want banks (core stocks) to fall and small-cap stocks to consolidate. For combining these camps, here are three conclusions. First, in terms of allocation, it's best to hold both high and low positions. Second, tech stocks are in a downtrend's oversold rebound, a short-term trading mindset. Category 1 is not tradable, while categories 2 and 3 can be traded occasionally. Small-cap stocks, old-economy stocks, or cyclical stocks have fallen for too long, are in an uptrend, and can be tracked with a medium-term view, aiming for a long-term hold with short-term trades. Third, it's best to identify which camp you belong to. If you can't, use the 5-day moving average as a benchmark: exit if it breaks, hold if it doesn't.

Finally, let me explain why these distinctions are necessary, and what to do if it sounds confusing. Here are two conclusions. First, this is a description of objective reality, not a subjective judgment. The market inherently operates this way; I'm just describing the objective state. Second, if you don't understand, ask, and I'll do my best to answer. But if you don't understand and still criticize, it's better to unfollow. Third, in the past, the market was dominated by a single leader, so you only needed to watch one direction. Now, opportunities are more evenly distributed, which naturally expands the scope of tracking.