On November 12, the 2026 Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference was held in Shanghai.

During a roundtable discussion titled "Macro Perspective: Global Changes and China's Opportunities," Lu Zhe, Chief Economist of Soochow Securities Company Limited. and Co-Head of its Research Institute, stated that looking ahead six to twelve months, the core variables affecting the performance of Chinese assets are mainly concentrated in two areas: policy and prices. Interest rates still have room to decline further, but credit risk and changes in corporate earnings warrant close attention.

Lu Zhe pointed out that banks, insurance companies and other institutions currently still have strong demand for bond asset allocation. Combined with persistent uncertainty in global markets and the relatively limited possibility of a sharp short-term strengthening in domestic economic fundamentals, conditions remain in place for interest rates to fall further.

From a policy perspective, he believes that monetary policy will overall maintain a relatively accommodative and proactive stance. On the fiscal policy side, whether measured by the narrow deficit ratio or by broader fiscal arrangements including special-purpose bonds, special treasury bonds and policy-based financial instruments, the current level of fiscal support is at a relatively high level.

However, Lu Zhe cautioned that what the bond market needs to watch is not only the trajectory of interest rates, but more importantly credit risk. As local government debt resolution work continues to advance, whether some urban investment platforms can truly achieve sustainable operations through market-based means remains somewhat uncertain. How to prevent credit risk from further transmitting to the equity market and even the financial system is an issue that requires attention going forward.

Regarding corporate earnings, Lu Zhe stated that the trajectory of the PPI will directly affect the profit expectations of industrial enterprises and listed companies. If price levels face downward pressure again in the future, it could lead to weakening corporate earnings expectations and have an impact on the A-share market.

He further noted that changes in corporate earnings also need to be examined from a structural perspective. This year, profits in upstream energy and raw materials industries have performed relatively strongly, while midstream enterprises have come under certain pressure. As the structure of prices and profit distribution changes in the future, whether some dividend assets can sustain their current earnings performance also needs to be reassessed.