Innovative Differentiation and Positive Earnings Forecast Set Stage for Davis Double at AB&B BIO-TECH-B (02627)

Stock News
02/26

Following the announcement on January 30th of this year regarding the successful market approval of the nation's first and only trivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine for the entire population, developed in-house by the company, AB&B BIO-TECH-B (02627) has recently announced another significant positive development. On February 26th, AB&B BIO-TECH issued a positive profit alert: for 2025, the company anticipates achieving annual revenue between 446 million yuan and 493 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.8% to 89.9%. The company expects to record a net loss for the period of approximately 157 million yuan to 197 million yuan, a significant narrowing of about 23.9% to 39.3% compared to the previous year.

From a secondary market perspective, with AB&B BIO-TECH's inclusion in the latest list of Stock Connect eligible securities, market attention on the company has noticeably increased. It has been observed that in January of this year, a securities firm initiated coverage on AB&B BIO-TECH with a "Buy" rating. On the stock price front, after accumulating a gain of over 200% last year, AB&B BIO-TECH's share price has risen by more than 30% year-to-date, reflecting sustained high trading enthusiasm and investor recognition of the company's long-term value. The disclosure of the annual positive profit alert further enhances the certainty of the company's long-term growth, indicating that while focusing on innovative vaccine upgrades, it has entered a phase of commercial realization, potentially ushering in a "Davis Double" of simultaneous earnings and valuation improvement.

Commercial capabilities have received further verification, enhancing "investment certainty." Since the beginning of the year, AB&B BIO-TECH's stock price has experienced a notable uptrend, reaching a high of HK$59.90, representing an increase of over 360% from its IPO price. This performance essentially reflects the阶段性成果 (stage results) of AB&B BIO-TECH's strategy of deep cultivation in innovative vaccines. The key vehicle for this is its core product, the quadrivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine, which is gradually gaining commercial validation. Since its launch in September 2023, the product has maintained a 100% batch release qualification rate due to its excellent safety and immunogenicity profile, and has achieved rapid sales network expansion. It currently covers 30 provinces in China, adding coverage to 232 disease control centers and 2,563 vaccination clinics. Positive progress has also been made in market access and reimbursement; the vaccine has passed the preliminary review for the 2025 National Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory, which is expected to further accelerate its penetration in public markets and commercial insurance channels.

According to the profit alert, revenue during the reporting period saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 71.8% to 89.9%, indicating that the significant clinical value and product strength of the core revenue-generating product are receiving持续高度认可 (continuous high recognition) from the end market. The direct reason behind the进一步提升 (further enhancement) of investment certainty is that AB&B BIO-TECH has reached a critical inflection point, moving towards annual profitability and the accelerated realization of its innovative commercial pipeline.

Firstly, for its first commercialized product, the company is continuously deepening its core product value and actively expanding the applicable population. Beyond covering the entire population aged 6 months and above, an adjuvanted vaccine targeting individuals aged 65 and older has received clinical approval, enhancing immune response in the elderly through the addition of an adjuvant. Research into vaccination for pregnant women has also entered the mid-stage; future successful approval could make it China's first influenza vaccine specifically for pregnant women, potentially extending protection to infants aged 0-6 months and filling a current gap in influenza immunization for this age group.

Secondly, as mentioned, on January 30th, the company's self-developed, nation's first and only trivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine for the entire population was successfully approved for market launch, adding a new growth curve to AB&B BIO-TECH's robust performance. A long-standing challenge for influenza vaccines in infants and young children (6-35 months) has been the potential limitation of protection associated with half-doses. The launch of the new trivalent vaccine provides a novel solution. It is understood that the antigen purity of this vaccine exceeds 95%, which is 3-5 times higher than traditional split-virus vaccines. Furthermore, through innovative antigen design and process optimization, it achieves "same dose, equal protection" across all age groups for the first time, effectively addressing this industry pain point. In terms of safety, the trivalent vaccine contains no antibiotics or preservatives and utilizes isotonic technology paired with a five-bevel micro-traumatic needle, further reducing injection pain and allergy risk. Clinical results show that in infants aged 6-35 months, the incidence of local adverse reactions was only 54% of that in the control group receiving split-virus vaccines, and the incidence of fever reactions in children aged 3-8 years was only 46% of the control group. Meanwhile, the overall incidence of adverse reactions in adults was also significantly lower than in the control group receiving split-virus influenza vaccines.

From a market perspective, as the influenza vaccine market transitions from "broad-spectrum coverage" to "targeted prevention," the positioning of trivalent and quadrivalent vaccines is gradually shifting towards a dual-track pattern of "more targeted" and "more comprehensive." In this context, the trivalent vaccine, with its higher purity and lower adverse reaction rate, is expected to focus more on specific age groups and high-risk populations, particularly addressing the need for rapid protection against predominant circulating strains during flu season. The quadrivalent vaccine will attract consumers seeking broader coverage with its "more comprehensive" protective characteristics.

In summary, the commercial launch of AB&B BIO-TECH's quadrivalent and trivalent subunit vaccines, while enriching the company's product portfolio, is expected to more precisely meet differentiated market demands, thereby fully capturing the dual benefits of increasing vaccination rates and industry technological upgrades, consequently further enhancing the company's investment certainty.

Leveraging differentiated innovation for long-term value appreciation advantage. In fact, beyond scaling up the commercialization of its core products, AB&B BIO-TECH has consistently been committed to enriching its innovative R&D pipeline储备 (reserves), leveraging differentiated innovation to build a long-term advantage for value appreciation. It is understood that beyond the two commercialized products mentioned, AB&B BIO-TECH's pipeline includes multiple vaccine candidates, such as a lyophilized human rabies vaccine (human diploid cell), a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, a recombinant带状疱疹 (zoster/shingles) vaccine (CHO cell), and a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. These candidates cover multiple disease areas, forming a product R&D pattern characterized by "orderly阶梯 (staged progression), focused breakthroughs, and multi-product reserves."

Among these, another core product candidate—the investigational lyophilized human rabies vaccine (human diploid cell)—is also drawing significant market attention. Data shows that the number of people exposed to rabies has been on an upward trend in recent years. In 2025, China reported 244 rabies cases and 233 deaths, both figures reaching new highs since 2020. Human diploid cell rabies vaccines have been used in Europe and North America for over 40 years, with their safety and efficacy fully validated, internationally recognized as the "gold standard" for rabies vaccines. However, currently only two human diploid cell rabies vaccines are available on the market, indicating相对稀缺 (relative scarcity) in supply. It is reported that AB&B BIO-TECH's human diploid cell rabies vaccine combines a lyophilized formulation with a pre-filled diluent syringe and is developing three immunization regimens to meet different scenario needs. It demonstrated good safety in Phase I clinical trials. The product has now entered Phase III clinical trials and, upon approval, is expected to become another significant growth driver for the company following its influenza vaccines.

Furthermore, AB&B BIO-TECH has前瞻性地 (proactively) initiated the construction of an mRNA technology platform. It currently has two mRNA product candidates and is advancing the development of mRNA combination vaccines targeting pathogens including RSV, influenza, and human metapneumovirus. Simultaneously, the company is also exploring布局 (laying out) therapeutic cancer vaccines for indications such as colorectal cancer and lung cancer, targeting more cutting-edge areas of biopharmaceuticals.

In summary, according to the quarterly review results of the Hang Seng Index Series announced on February 25th for the period ending December 31, 2025, AB&B BIO-TECH successfully crossed the threshold and was included in the Stock Connect. Referencing the disclosed 2025 annual profit alert, AB&B BIO-TECH demonstrates strong self-sustaining advantages at the commercial level, while its fundamentals show a clear trend of stabilization and improvement, aligning well with the current investment themes in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector. Subsequently, with the added liquidity support from Stock Connect funds, AB&B BIO-TECH is有望 (poised) to further unlock upside potential in its company valuation.

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