A chart allegedly showing that global central bank gold reserves have exceeded US Treasury holdings has generated significant excitement, with even Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian sharing the graphic on LinkedIn.

But does this mark a turning point for the post-Bretton Woods world?

**Central Bank Gold Reserves Exceed US Treasuries for First Time in 29 Years**

Toby Nangle, Head of Multi-Asset at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, has questioned this narrative in a detailed analysis. Initially skeptical of the data's authenticity, his doubts were further amplified when Satori Insight analyst Matt King was unable to replicate the findings. This prompted him to conduct a deeper investigation.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducts quarterly surveys of central banks, publishing the widely-cited Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report. The latest report shows that of the global $11.6 trillion in "allocated foreign exchange reserves," dollar assets account for $6.7 trillion, or 58%. However, this doesn't tell the complete story.

The IMF's COFER report categorizes by "currency type" rather than "asset type," and the $6.7 trillion in dollar assets doesn't consist entirely of US Treasuries. Central banks also hold substantial amounts of agency bonds and other dollar-denominated debt, all of which are included in the $6.7 trillion figure, but notably excludes monetary gold priced in dollars.

The US Treasury's International Capital (TIC) report for June shows foreign investors holding $9.1 trillion in US Treasury bills and bonds, with approximately $3.9 trillion believed to be held by foreign central banks.

How do these figures compare to central bank gold holdings?

The IMF publishes data on central bank gold holdings (in troy ounces) and also tracks "total reserves including gold." Even calculating at market gold prices, this doesn't yield the "28% gold share in central bank forex reserves" shown in the popular chart, but does produce a gold share of 22%.

At the end of June, Nangle calculated central bank gold holdings at $3.86 trillion, still below the $3.92 trillion in US Treasuries held by foreign officials.

However, since June, gold prices have risen another 10.5%. The World Gold Council estimates that central banks continue to accumulate gold, but even without additional purchases, the price increase alone would push central bank gold holdings to $4.2 trillion.

**Gold Holdings Value Rises with Price Increases**

We won't know whether central bank holdings of US Treasuries and gold have truly crossed over until the next TIC report is published on October 17. However, unless reserve managers added $200 billion in US Treasuries during July and August, the likelihood of gold holdings exceeding Treasury holdings is high.

Nevertheless, Nangle believes the actual impact may not be as significant as some suggest.

First, it's important to note that claims of "central banks fleeing the US Treasury market" are overstated. The crossover between these two figures is primarily due to gold's 38% price increase in 2025 – and the gold price surge is itself, at least partially, a result of central bank gold purchases.

Central bank gold holdings bottomed out in March 2009 and have been steadily increasing since then. Official data shows no signs of accelerated accumulation, though one point worth noting is that the significant gold price appreciation hasn't halted the buying pace.

**Central Banks Have Been Steadily Accumulating Gold Since the Financial Crisis**

Additionally, while US Treasury prices have recovered over the past year, US government debt valuations still haven't returned to levels from five years ago – before inflation began to surge.

The chart below shows the performance of an ETF tracking long-term US Treasuries, which constitute a significant portion of central bank reserves.

**20+ Year US Treasury ETF Shows Declining Trend**

In other words, this phenomenon in central bank reserves is primarily the result of recent price movements, rather than a fundamental, dramatic shift from US Treasuries to gold.

Second, it's crucial to remember that central bank reserve data isn't completely reliable and shouldn't be taken entirely at face value.

Taking TIC data as an example, the US Treasury faces numerous challenges in accurately attributing ownership – foreign central banks increasingly hold US debt through intermediary custodians like Belgium's Euroclear and Luxembourg's Clearstream to conceal direct ownership. Therefore, the actual scale of US debt held by foreign central banks may be higher.

COFER data isn't much better, as it relies primarily on self-reporting by countries. Furthermore, agency bonds should actually be considered US government-related debt, and including them in the statistics might significantly alter the results shown in the controversial chart – though this is unlikely to fill the entire gap between "$3.9 trillion in Treasury holdings" and "$6.7 trillion in dollar asset holdings."

Finally, some countries actually hold far more foreign exchange reserves than publicly reported – these reserves are simply held in state-owned banks, insurance companies, and pension funds rather than disclosed as official reserves. Some of these would also be held in the form of US Treasuries.

Nangle concludes that while central banks are indeed reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold holdings, this trend exists. Concerns about the Trump administration's economic policies now naturally intertwine with long-standing worries about "dollar weaponization." However, the actual situation isn't as dramatic as the charts suggest.