**Key Takeaways** - **Core View**: Neutral. Cotton prices remain weak due to macroeconomic headwinds but stay within a volatile range. Downstream textile inventories are low, with no significant negative feedback on upstream supply. The strategy leans toward buying on dips. - **Spot Market**: Neutral. Procurement is nearing completion, stabilizing spot prices. Weak futures prices have boosted basis trade over fixed-price sales. Increased new-cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts add pressure. - **Imported Yarn**: Slightly bearish. Rising arrivals and port inventories prompt traders to accelerate sales and pre-shipments. - **Imported Cotton**: Neutral. China’s additional 200k-ton processing quota has limited market impact due to small volume and unresolved byproduct issues. - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Post-U.S.-China talks, traceable orders emerged, but downstream demand slowed. Mills enjoy solid margins with mixed operating rates.

**Major Cotton Producers** 1. **China (Xinjiang)**: Harvest is 98.5% complete; ginning sales outpace last year. 2. **U.S.**: 123.7k tons of new cotton inspected (40.2% progress); late-November rains may delay harvest. 3. **India**: Daily arrivals at 16k–20k tons; MSP procurement reaches 42.5k tons. Rains in southern/central regions could hinder progress. 4. **Brazil**: 73.87% of 2025 crop processed; 2026 planting begins in non-core regions.

**Terminal Demand**: Neutral. U.S. consumer confidence dips; Asia’s Oct textile exports fell YoY but rose MoM.

**Macro**: Neutral. U.S.-China trade talks yielded consensus on tariffs, agricultural trade, and export controls.

**Global**: USDA’s November report raised global output estimates (China +218k tons, U.S. +194k tons, Brazil +109k tons), tilting balances to a slight surplus.

**China Focus** - **Output**: Domestic estimates (7.4–7.6M tons) exceed USDA’s 7.29M tons. - **Xinjiang**: 306.2k tons of new cotton inspected (+21% YoY). - **Warehouse Receipts**: Surge in Zhengzhou futures receipts (+1,483 lots WoW).

**U.S. Update** - **Harvest**: 71% complete, lagging behind historical averages. - **Weather**: Late-November rains in key regions may disrupt harvest.

**India Highlights** - **MSP Procurement**: Slow (4.25k tons procured); rains threaten progress. - **Cotton Prices**: S-6 grade eased to 51,900 INR/candy (~74.64¢/lb). - **Exports**: Oct apparel exports fell 13% YoY to $1.07B.

**Brazil & Australia** - **Brazil**: 2026 output forecast at 4.03M tons (-1.2% YoY). - **Australia**: Sept exports at 175k tons (China: 58k tons; India: 36.5k tons).

**Market Watch**: Monitor ginners’ hedging pace and India’s MSP progress amid weather risks.